Musalem’s comments signal a steady policy framework, suggesting the Fed views tariffs as a lasting inflation factor while maintaining flexibility between its balance sheet and interest-rate tools.
EUR/USD recovers some ground on Thursday, post gains of 0.45% after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1486 as the Greenback weakened. A soft jobs data in the US increased speculation for a Fed rate cut at the December meeting. The pair trades at 1.1545 at the time of writing.
Gold price advances on Thursday after reaching a daily high of $4,019, but retreats below the $4,000 mark even though the US Dollar and US Treasury yields tumbled. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades with gains of over 0.10% at around $3,985.
GBP/USD recovers some ground but trades off daily highs as the Bank of England (BoE) held rates unchanged on Thursday, on a 'dovish' hold as the vote split hints that the December meeting is open. The pair trades at 1.3080, up 0.26%.
The USDCHF is back down testing a swing area between 0.8071 and 0.8076 along with the 100 hour MA (at 0.8079). Which way will the bias turn at this area?
The BOE voted to keep rated unchanged but only by a 5-4 votes (with dissenters voting to cut). The GBPUSD is still higher but off highs. The EURUSD is higher (lower USD) and the USDJPY is lower with each moving through technical levels tilting the bias in the dollar selling direction.
Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Thursday, after briefly reclaiming the key $4,000 psychological mark amid a weaker US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,985, easing from an intraday high of $4,019 as bullish momentum stalls.
US Dollar (USD) could trade in a range between 153.30 and 154.40. In the longer run, USD appears to have entered a 152.40/154.40 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.5640 and 0.5680. In the longer run, downward pressure has increased; NZD could weaken to 0.5600 next, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to consolidate in a range of 0.6485/0.6525. In the longer run, outlook for AUD is negative now, but last month’s low near 0.6445 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Slowing downward momentum suggests Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to continue to trade in a range, expected to be between 1.3030 and 1.3090. In the longer run, GBP is still negative, but further downside may be limited.
Tentatively slowing downward momentum and oversold conditions suggest consolidation in EUR, likely between 1.1475 and 1.1525. In the longer run, EUR is expected to weaken further; the next level to watch is 1.1450, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00% with a 6-3 vote split. We will also get the updated economic projections and new minutes format with the focus on individual perspectives of the MPC members.
ADP payroll figures were good enough (42k vs 30k consensus) to keep markets in guessing mode about December's Fed cut. ISM services were also stronger than expected. The US Dollar (USD) reaction was interestingly quite muted and was followed by a correction overnight.
The Bank of England will conclude this week's G10 central bank meetings today. Having lowered interest rates every three months this year, today would normally be the time for the next step, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.
Sentiment toward the US Dollar (USD) has brightened considerably recently. This is evident not only in the exchange rate, which has appreciated significantly, but also in the options market.
USD/JPY rebounded to trade closer to 154, after trading briefly below 153 overnight. Pair was last seen at 153.54 levels. The rebound overnight tracked UST yields higher, after US data surprised to the upside, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
US Dollar (USD) slipped this morning, taking cues from slight recovery in risk sentiments. DXY last at 100 levels. Overnight, US data – ADP employment, ISM services - came in better than expected, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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