The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its advance against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with AUD/USD climbing to its highest level since September 18 as traders are almost certain the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will leave interest rates unchanged on December 9.
The US Dollar’s (USD) sharp H1 2025 drop could push investors toward broader portfolios, though geopolitics and Fed risks may keep the currency unsettled.
The USDCAD fell below the 100 and 200 day MA and has seen increased downside momentum. That level is now close risk for traders between 1.3889 and 1.39004.
GBP/USD resumes its uptrend on Friday, trimming some of Thursday’s losses as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground. Inflation data in the US kept steady the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) cut at the December meeting, weighing on the Greenback.
The corrective sellers in the USDINR moved below some short term technical targets yesterday and today, but fell short of the 38.2% of the move up from the November 11 swing low. What next?
EUR/GBP remains under pressure on Friday as the Euro (EUR) continues to soften against a broadly supported British Pound (GBP). Sterling has held firm since the UK Autumn Budget, even as markets maintain strong expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut at the December 18 meeting.
Gold (XAU/USD) erases earlier gains on Friday as a firmer US Dollar (USD) tempers bullish momentum, with the metal oscillating within the familiar range that has defined price action this week.
US Dollar (USD) weakness is expected to continue into year-end, supported by seasonal flows and stable Treasury markets. Commodity currencies are performing well, while EUR/USD and USD/JPY target 1.18 and 152, respectively, amid subdued FX volatility, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The United States (US) will see the release of the preliminary estimate of December’s University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
The Euro (EUR) is on track for a second weekly gain versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by expectations of a narrowing policy gap between the Fed and ECB.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is finding support from expected BoJ rate hikes, with markets pricing a 25bp move for December 19. USD/JPY is projected to reach 152 by year-end, with a modest 148 forecast for 2026 as Japan balances reflation and currency strength, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains firm, though analysts view the move as a short squeeze rather than a fundamental reassessment of UK risk. While GBP/USD may rise into year-end, BoE easing should keep EUR/GBP supported around 0.88, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Eurozone hedging costs on U.S. assets are falling sharply, reinforcing tailwinds for EUR/USD as the Fed easing cycle approaches. Near term, the pair should stay supported around 1.1630/40 with scope to test 1.1700–1.1730, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
USD/CAD is pressing into major support at the 200-day average and the base of its multi-month channel near 1.3920/1.3880, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
EUR/USD has given away previous gains during Friday's European session and is practically flat in the daily chart, trading at 1.1647 at the time of writing.
The rate cut reinforces a dovish RBI stance, likely pressuring short-end yields and keeping INR biased weaker unless supported by flows. The possibility of another 25bp reduction anchors expectations for a near-term easing peak around 5%, with liquidity measures providing additional support for credit conditions.
The report boosts market conviction that the BOJ will resume tightening at the December meeting. Yen strength and softer JGB futures reflect expectations that the BOJ may pivot more decisively toward normalisation, though policymakers will watch data closely before confirming the move.
The PBOC’s shift toward a neutral fixing bias implies limited yuan upside in the near term, with authorities seeking to balance investor confidence against export competitiveness. A stable yuan into year-end reduces FX volatility risk but may cap appreciation trades unless macro conditions shift meaningfully.
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