The BOJ’s October meeting summary showed most policymakers see a case for a near-term rate hike if wage growth holds and global conditions stay stable. Two members wanted an immediate increase, while Governor Ueda urged patience to confirm data trends.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that Australia’s economy remains tighter than usual for a recovery, limiting room for further easing. He said inflation control will require policy to stay restrictive until the output gap narrows and called for greater productivity and investment to expand supply.
New York Fed chief John Williams warned that rising affordability pressures on lower-income Americans could threaten U.S. economic resilience, calling the December policy meeting a “balancing act” as inflation stays high and consumer confidence risks weaken.
Next week's highlights include China inflation and activity data, labour market reports from the UK and Australia, New Zealand Inflation Forecasts and the BoJ Summary of Opinions.
EUR/USD trimmed some of its previous losses and rises 0.16% on Friday’s late in the North American session, amid a scarce economic docket in both sides of the Atlantic.
Gold price (XAU/USD) advances during the North American session on Friday, up 0.64% as the US government shutdown extends, while risk aversion keeps US equity markets poised for weekly losses. At the time of writing, Bullion trades at $4,002 after bouncing off daily lows of $3,974.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades little changed on Friday, hovering near $48.30 at the time of writing after easing from intraday highs, as the market remains directionless heading into the weekend.
The Euro (EUR) extends its rebound against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, building on renewed weakness in the Greenback. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.1575, its highest level since October 30.
GBP/USD clings to minimal gains on Friday amid the lack of economic data releases in the UK, as markets digest scarce economic data amid the ongoing US government shutdown. The pair trades at 1.3148, up 0.10% after hitting a daily low of 1.3095.
GBP/JPY trades slightly lower on Friday, hovering around 200.75 at the time of writing, and remains on track for its second consecutive weekly loss. The pair has stabilized after sharp mid-week selling that drove prices to a one-month low, filling the bullish gap from October 6.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades slightly firmer on Friday, holding within the familiar $3,900-$4,050 range as the prolonged United States (US) government shutdown and cautious sentiment across global markets keep safe-haven demand steady.
Slight increase in downward momentum is likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1170/7.1280. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 7.1120 and 7.1330, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There is room for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to edge lower, but any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.5620/0.5650. In the longer run, downward pressure has increased; NZD could weaken to 0.5600 next, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) could test 0.6460; the major support at 0.6445 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, outlook for AUD is negative now, but last month’s low near 0.6445 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Euro (EUR) has scope to extend to 1.1570 before a pause can be expected. In the longer run, weakness from a week ago has stabilized; EUR is likely to trade in a range of 1.1485/1.1610 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Markets eye Canadian jobs data, with a modest October decline expected, while soft Chinese trade figures weigh on commodity currencies and USD/CAD upside, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Yesterday, the Bank of England (BOE) left interest rates unchanged, but the decision was extremely close, with a vote of 5-4 (it was expected to be 6-3).
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