The EUR/USD ended Friday with losses of 0.10% but the week finished on a higher note up 0.51% as risk appetite deteriorated amid growing speculation the Federal Reserve would pause its easing cycle next month. Nevertheless, the pair closed above the 1.1600 figure, paving the way for further upside.
Gold (XAU/USD) tumbles nearly 2% on Friday, yet it has recovered after reaching a daily low of $4,032 on growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might pause its easing cycle as most officials struck a hawkish message.
The British Pound (GBP) trades on the back foot against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday after the Pound weakened broadly following a Financial Times report that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have abandoned plans to raise income-tax rates ahead of the November 26 budget.
Gold (XAUUSD) trades on the back foot on Friday as bulls struggle to hold early gains amid mixed market sentiment. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,100, down nearly 1.5%, after sliding to $4,032 earlier in the day
Further USD declines are not ruled out, but major support at 7.0885 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, USD remains negative, and the next level to watch is 7.0885, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There is a chance for US Dollar (USD) to rise above 155.00; a continued advance above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, the price action suggests USD is likely to trade with an upside bias; any gains may be capped near 155.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase between 0.5630 and 0.5680. In the longer run, no change in view; NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5605 and 0.5695, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Outlook is mixed; AUD could trade in a range between 0.6510 and 0.6560. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is likely to trade in a 0.6490/0.6580 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade between 1.3120 and 1.3200. In the longer run, there has been a tentative buildup in momentum, and GBP could test 1.3240, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD/CNH remains capped by the 50-day moving average at 7.12 and is now testing the lower edge of its range near 7.08, with failure to break higher opening the door to declines toward 7.05 and 7.02/7.01, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Light crude oil futures analysis using the tradeCompass map: Bullish above 60.00. Bearish below 59.75. Short term bias: bearish while price holds under 59.75 and circles the 59.50 POC.
EUR/CHF has slipped below its 2024 and October lows after failing at the 0.93 trend-line resistance, with bearish momentum suggesting the downtrend may extend toward 0.9170/0.9160 and potentially 0.9100, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
It’s not unusual for the highly efficient FX market to be more forward-looking than other asset classes. In this case, it appears that the US Dollar (USDD) is embedding the narrative that the US reopening will lead to softer data and a dovish Fed repricing, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD bullishness has continued to rise both in spot and via the options markets, with 1-month 25 delta risk reversals (cost of a call minus cost of a put) having moved from -0.2 to +0.3 in the past 10 days.
EUR/USD remains practically flat on the daily chart, trading at 1.1630, at a short distance from the three-week highs of 1.1655 hit on Thursday, and on track to close the week nearly 0.6% higher.
EUR/USD extends gains for the eighth consecutive day on Friday, trading at 1.1640 at the time of writing on Friday, on track for a 0.6% rally this week.
Gold futures at 4187 at the time of this analysis. Bearish below 4194 as long as price stays capped under that zone. Bulls only gain control above 4207.7. Traders can watch retracements into 4188 to 4194 for potential shorts.
Firm Australian rate expectations versus rising odds of further RBNZ easing continue to favour AUD/NZD upside, especially if New Zealand data remains soft.
Citi says shutdown disruptions mean September payrolls may arrive next week and October jobs data could slip to early December. October CPI and payrolls may still be published but with lower reliability.
RBNZ MPC member Prasanna Gai said global tensions, climate risks and supply-chain strains are reshaping trade and clouding the economic outlook. He urged clearer central-bank communication and long-term fiscal coherence to guide expectations.
The GBP/JPY prolongs its gains on Thursday up a modest 0.22%, distancing from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 202.48, seen as the first support area for the cross-pair. At the time of writing, the cross trade at 203.82 shy of reclaiming the 204.00 milestone.
EUR/USD advances past the 1.1600 figure on Thursday, hitting a two-week high of 1.1656, yet is unable to decisively crack the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) key resistance at 1.1661.
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