ICYMI - Nvidia China shipment plans lift US stocks as AI export policy eases

Summary

• Nvidia aims to resume H200 AI chip shipments to China by mid-February, sources told Reuters.

• Initial deliveries would come from existing inventory, with larger capacity planned for 2026.

• Shipments hinge on Chinese government approval and US export licensing.

• The move follows Trump’s decision to allow H200 sales with a 25% fee, reversing Biden-era restrictions.

• The report supported US tech stocks during Europe and US trade on Monday.

Shares of Nvidia and broader US equities found support during European and US trading hours on Monday after a Reuters report said the chipmaker is aiming to resume shipments of advanced AI processors to China as early as mid-February.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Nvidia has told Chinese customers it plans to begin shipping H200 AI chips, its second-most powerful processor, before the Lunar New Year holiday, using existing inventory. Initial deliveries are expected to total between 5,000 and 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to roughly 40,000–80,000 H200 chips.

The company has also signalled plans to add new production capacity for China-bound H200 chips, with orders for that capacity potentially opening in the second quarter of 2026. However, sources cautioned that the entire plan remains contingent on Chinese government approval, with Beijing yet to formally clear any purchases.

The prospective shipments would mark the first deliveries of H200 chips to China since US President Donald Trump said earlier this month that Washington would allow such sales subject to a 25% fee. Reuters previously reported that the Trump administration had launched an inter-agency review of export license applications.

While the H200 belongs to Nvidia’s earlier-generation Hopper line and has been superseded by newer Blackwell chips, it remains widely used in AI workloads and is seen as materially more powerful than the H20 chips previously permitted for China.

For Chinese technology groups such as Alibaba Group and ByteDance, which have expressed interest in the H200, the potential resumption of shipments would significantly improve access to high-performance AI hardware. That said, Chinese authorities are reportedly weighing conditions for approval, including proposals that imported chips be bundled with domestically produced processors.

The report helped buoy US tech sentiment late Monday, reinforcing the view that regulatory risk around AI chip exports may be easing at the margin, even as political and approval uncertainty remains elevated.