Feedback / Help improve this page

United States USD

United States Unit Labour Costs QoQ Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.2%

Actual:

Forecast: 1.2%

Previous/Revision:

6.9%

Period: Q2

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q3

What Does It Measure?

The Unit Labour Costs (ULC) measure the cost of labor per unit of output in the economy, explicitly reflecting the relationship between hourly compensation paid to workers and labor productivity. It primarily assesses the inflationary pressure in wages, employment conditions, and the overall competitiveness of businesses on a national scale.

Frequency

Unit Labour Costs are released quarterly, with the final figure typically published about three months after the quarter ends, reflecting comprehensive adjustments and revisions from preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on ULC as it acts as a barometer for wage inflation, which can lead to changes in monetary policy; higher-than-expected ULC figures suggest inflationary pressures, potentially prompting interest rate hikes, which can strengthen the currency and impact equities. Conversely, lower-than-expected results may indicate weak wage growth, which could be bearish for the currency and stocks due to reduced consumer spending power.

What Is It Derived From?

Unit Labour Costs are derived from calculating total labor costs relative to real output, often utilizing data from national labor statistics and productivity reports. The methodology involves aggregating wage data, including salaries and benefits, and adjusting this total by the output produced, using established statistical techniques to ensure accuracy.

Description

The ULC report provides insights into labor market dynamics by comparing costs associated with labor against overall productivity, highlighting potential inflationary trends or economic slack. It is released as a finalized report that is more accurate but typically has preliminary data that markets often react to, given its indicative nature of wage pressures and economic health.

Additional Notes

Unit Labour Costs serve as a lagging economic measure, reflecting past trends in wage and productivity changes, and are often compared against other inflation indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The growth rate in ULC can signal broader economic conditions, influencing central banks' monetary policy decisions and future economic forecasts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates due to persistent wage inflation concerns is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Sep 04, 2025	1%	1.2%	6.9%	-0.2%
Jun 05, 2025	6.6%	5.7%	2%	0.9%
Mar 06, 2025	2.2%	3%	-1.5%	-0.8%
Dec 10, 2024	0.8%	1.5%	-1.1%	-0.7%
Sep 05, 2024	0.4%	0.8%	3.8%	-0.4%
Jun 06, 2024	4%	4.9%	-2.8%	-0.9%
Mar 07, 2024	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%	-0.2%
Dec 06, 2023	-1.2%	-0.9%	2.6%	-0.3%