New Zealand NZD

New Zealand Terms of Trade QoQ

Impact:
Low

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-2.4%
Actual:
-2.1%
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous/Revision:
4.2%
Period: Q3

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Q4
What Does It Measure?
The New Zealand Terms of Trade (ToT) QoQ measures the relative prices of the country's exports compared to its imports, allowing for the assessment of the trade balance and overall economic health. It specifically focuses on evaluating the purchasing power of New Zealand exports in relation to imports, highlighting key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing.
Frequency
The Terms of Trade is reported quarterly, with a typical release in the second month following the end of the quarter. The data provided can be preliminary or final, with financial markets paying close attention to preliminary estimates for early insights.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the Terms of Trade closely as it serves as a crucial indicator of economic strength in New Zealand and can influence the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) along with equities tied to export sectors. Positive changes can strengthen the NZD and boost stock prices linked to exporters, whereas negative results may have a bearish effect on both currencies and stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
The Terms of Trade is derived from national accounts data that includes export and import prices collected from trade transactions. It is calculated by taking the ratio of export prices to import prices, providing insight based on trade reporting and price movements observed during the quarter.
Description
The Terms of Trade is essential for understanding the economic dynamics of New Zealand, particularly in relation to global commodity prices. It reflects both domestic and international factors influencing trade, positioning itself as a coincident indicator that showcases real-time economic performance tied to trade activities.
Additional Notes
This indicator is often compared with other measures such as the trade balance and is considered a coincident economic measure, reflecting current conditions rather than predicting future trends. It is crucial for assessing the health of New Zealand's economy and its competitiveness globally, especially concerning major trading partners like China and Australia.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for NZD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for NZD, Bearish for Stocks. The analysis of the Terms of Trade often reveals its impact on monetary policy, where a strong ToT can suggest inflationary pressures, which is usually bad for the NZD but good for stocks due to robust export revenue growth.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
-2.1%
0.3%
4.2%
-2.4%
4.1%
1.9%
1.9%
2.2%
1.9%
3.1%
3.2%
-1.2%
3.1%
1.1%
2.5%
2%
2.4%
1.8%
2.1%
0.6%
2.1%
28%
5.1%
-25.9%
5.1%
3.1%
-7.8%
2%
-7.8%
-0.2%
-0.6%
-7.6%
-0.6%
-1.9%
0.3%
1.3%
0.4%
-1.3%
-1.5%
1.7%
-1.5%
-1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
-1.3%
-3.9%
3.1%
-3.4%
1.6%
-2.3%
-5%
-2.4%
-1.3%
0.5%
-1.1%
0.5%
0.5%
-0.9%
-1%
-0.8%
0.4%
-0.2%
0.7%
2%
3.3%
-1.3%
3.3%
2.5%
0.1%
0.8%
0.1%
-0.1%
1.3%
0.2%
1.3%
1.3%
-4.7%
-4.7%
-2.8%
2.5%
-1.9%
2.5%
0.9%
-0.6%
1.6%
-0.7%
1.3%
2.7%
-2%
2.6%
0.8%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1.4%
1.2%
1.6%
1%
1%
0.6%
1%
1%
-3.2%
-3%
-1%
-0.1%
-2%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.6%
1%
-2%
-0.4%
-1.9%
-2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
0.7%
1%
0.7%
0.9%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
3.5%
3.9%
-2%
5.1%
3.9%
5.7%
1.2%
5.7%
4.1%
-1.1%
1.6%
-1.8%
-1.2%
-2.5%
-0.6%
-2.1%
-2%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.4%
-0.2%
-2%
4.6%
-2%
0%
-3.8%
-2%
1.3%
-1.9%
1.2%
3.2%
Broker Rebates