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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

£-1.65B

Actual:

£-11.65B

Forecast: £-10B

Previous/Revision:

£-21.19B

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks measures the government's fiscal position by assessing the difference between its expenditures and revenues, excluding the financial activity of banks. This indicator focuses primarily on public sector finances, encompassing key areas such as government borrowing, spending, and the overall budget deficit, often utilized to gauge fiscal sustainability and economic health.

Frequency

This report is released monthly, providing a preliminary estimate followed by final figures that may revise initial data. The publication typically occurs on the first working day of the following month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor public sector borrowing figures as they reflect the government's fiscal stance, which can influence interest rates, exchange rates, and overall market sentiment. A higher borrowing requirement could signal monetary policy adjustments, affecting currencies like GBP and impacting related assets in equity and bond markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks is derived from the government's accounting records, encompassing data on revenue received from taxes and other sources juxtaposed against the expenditures allocated across various sectors. This report utilizes national accounts frameworks, applying certain accounting standards to derive accurate measures of public financial health.

Description

Preliminary reports are based on early estimates that provide timely insights but are subject to subsequent revisions. In contrast, final reports offer a more comprehensive and accurate picture of public sector borrowing, often resulting in market reactions that adjust based on the final data's credibility; traders will often react quickly to preliminary figures for their immediate relevance.

Additional Notes

The Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks serves as a coincident economic indicator as it reflects the current state of government finances relevant to overall economic activity. It is often compared with other economic indicators such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to understand broader fiscal implications and trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 19, 2025	£-11.65B	£-10B	£-21.19B	£-1.65B
Nov 21, 2025	£-17.43B	£-15.2B	£-19.89B	£-2.23B
Oct 21, 2025	£-20.2B	£-20.5B	£-15.32B	£0.3B
Sep 19, 2025	£-17.96B	£-12.75B	£-2.82B	£-5.21B
Aug 21, 2025	£-1.05B	£-2.6B	£-22.56B	£1.55B
Jul 22, 2025	£-20.68B	£-15.6B	£-17.44B	£-5.08B
Jun 20, 2025	£-17.69B	£-17.1B	£-20.05B	£-0.59B
May 22, 2025	£-20.16B	£-17.9B	£-14.14B	£-2.26B
Apr 23, 2025	£-16.44B	£-16.05B	£-12.31B	£-0.39B
Mar 21, 2025	£-10.71B	£-6.6B	£13.32B	£-4.11B
Feb 21, 2025	£15.44B	£20B	£-18.12B	£-4.56B
Jan 22, 2025	£-17.81B	£-14.1B	£-11.8B	£-3.71B
Dec 20, 2024	£-11.25B	£-13B	£-18.2B	£1.75B
Nov 21, 2024	£-17.4B	£-12.3B	£-16.1B	£-5.1B
Oct 22, 2024	£-16.61B	£-17.5B	£-13.02B	£0.89B
Sep 20, 2024	£-13.73B	£-12.4B	£-3.1B	£-1.33B
Aug 21, 2024	£-3.1B	£-1.5B	£-13.5B	£-1.6B
Jul 19, 2024	£-14.5B	£-12.9B	£-16.5B	£-1.6B
Jun 21, 2024	£-15B	£-15.7B	£-18.4B	£0.7B
May 22, 2024	£-20.5B	£-19.3B	£-13.1B	£-1.2B
Apr 23, 2024	£-11.9B	£-7.6B	£-9.5B	£-4.3B
Mar 21, 2024	£-8.401B	£-5.95B	£16.114B	£-2.451B
Feb 21, 2024	£16.69B	£18.7B	£-7.37B	£-2.01B
Jan 23, 2024	£-7.77B	£-14B	£-13.71B	£6.23B
Dec 21, 2023	£-14.33B	£-12.9B	£-16.03B	£-1.43B
Nov 21, 2023	£-14.89B	£-13.7B	£-14.64B	£-1.19B
Oct 20, 2023	£-14.347B	£-19B	£-11.397B	£4.653B
Sep 21, 2023	£-11.6B	£-11.3B	£0.383B	£-0.3B
Aug 22, 2023	£-4.301B	£-5B	£-17.933B	£0.699B
Jul 21, 2023	£-18.49B	£-22B	£-16.6B	£3.51B
Jun 21, 2023	£-20.05B	£-19.75B	£-22.82B	£-0.3B
May 23, 2023	£-25.56B	£-18.7B	£-20.84B	£-6.86B
Apr 25, 2023	£-21.53B	£-22.15B	£-13.32B	£0.62B
Mar 21, 2023	£-16.68B	£-11.4B	£8.28B	£-5.28B
Feb 21, 2023	£5.4B	£-6.95B	£-25.6B	£12.35B
Jan 24, 2023	£-27.4B	£-17.75B	£-19.6B	£-9.65B
Dec 21, 2022	£-22B	£-13B	£-14.2B	£-9B
Nov 22, 2022	£-13.5B	£-22B	£-17.8B	£8.5B
Oct 21, 2022	£-20B	£-17.1B	£-9.34B	£-2.9B
Sep 21, 2022	£-11.8B	£-8.45B	£-2.9B	£-3.35B
Aug 19, 2022	£-4.9B	£-2B	£-20.9B	£-2.9B
Jul 21, 2022	£-22.88B	£-12.8B	£-12.56B	£-10.08B
Jun 23, 2022	£-13.99B	£-12B	£-21.9B	£-1.99B
May 24, 2022	£-18.6B	£-17.85B	£-14.7B	£-0.75B