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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.1%

Actual:

3.5%

Forecast: 3.6%

Previous/Revision:

3.5%

Period: Oct

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 3.4%

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The United Kingdom PPI Core Output YoY (Producer Price Index Core Output Year-over-Year) measures the average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food, beverages, and energy. It provides insights into inflation at the wholesale level, focusing on the pricing power of producers and the underlying cost pressures in the economy.

Frequency

The PPI Core Output YoY is released monthly as a final figure, typically on the second or third week of the month, providing data for the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the PPI Core Output as it influences expectations about inflation and can signal future consumer price trends, impacting monetary policy decisions. Higher-than-expected PPI figures may lead to a stronger British pound and rising stock prices, while lower readings can indicate weaker economic conditions, potentially causing bearish sentiment in financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PPI Core Output is derived from a survey of producers across various industries regarding the prices they are receiving for their goods, based on a representative sample that reflects overall industry conditions. This includes data collection methodologies using established pricing indices that aggregate price changes, ensuring that the index is reflective of current market conditions.

Description

The PPI Core Output describes the annual percentage change in the prices producers receive for their finished goods, which excludes potentially volatile categories such as food and energy to provide a clearer view of underlying price trends. This core measure helps analysts isolate price movements driven by broader economic factors rather than temporary price shocks.

Additional Notes

The PPI Core Output is considered a leading economic indicator as it often precedes changes in consumer inflation, making it a critical signal for economists and policymakers. It is closely watched in conjunction with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and other inflation measures to assess the overall inflationary environment in the UK and its implications for the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the GBP but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Nov 19, 2025	3.5%	3.6%	3.5%	-0.1%
Oct 22, 2025	3.6%	2.9%	3.5%	0.7%
Feb 19, 2025	1.5%	1.3%	1.6%	0.2%
Jan 15, 2025	1.5%	2.1%	1.6%	-0.6%
Dec 18, 2024	1.6%	2%	1.6%	-0.4%
Nov 20, 2024	1.7%	1.3%	1.4%	0.4%
Oct 16, 2024	1.4%	2%	1.3%	-0.6%
Sep 18, 2024	1.3%	1.2%	1%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2024	1%	1.1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Jul 17, 2024	1.1%	2.2%	1%	-1.1%
Jun 19, 2024	1%	0.5%	0.3%	0.5%
May 22, 2024	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%
Apr 17, 2024	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Mar 20, 2024	0.3%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%
Feb 14, 2024	-0.4%	-0.7%	0%	0.3%
Jan 17, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Dec 20, 2023	0.2%	-0.2%	0.4%	0.4%
Nov 15, 2023	0.2%	0.2%	0.8%
Oct 18, 2023	0.7%	1%	1.5%	-0.3%
Sep 20, 2023	1.6%	2.1%	2.2%	-0.5%
Aug 16, 2023	2.3%	1.9%	3.1%	0.4%
Jul 19, 2023	3%	2.8%	3.9%	0.2%
Jun 21, 2023	4.1%	4.7%	6%	-0.6%
May 24, 2023	6%	7.3%	8.3%	-1.3%
Apr 19, 2023	8.5%	8.6%	10.2%	-0.1%
Mar 22, 2023	10.4%	10.9%	11.2%	-0.5%
Feb 15, 2023	11.1%	10.6%	12%	0.5%
Jan 25, 2023	12.4%	11.5%	13%	0.9%
Nov 16, 2022	13.3%	14.2%	14.4%	-0.9%
Oct 19, 2022	14%	13.7%	13.9%	0.3%
Sep 14, 2022	13.7%	14.6%	14.4%	-0.9%
Aug 17, 2022	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	-0.2%
Jul 20, 2022	15.2%	15.1%	14.8%	0.1%
Jun 22, 2022	14.8%	12.7%	13.9%	2.1%
May 18, 2022	13%	11.8%	11.8%	1.2%
Apr 13, 2022	12%	11.1%	9.9%	0.9%
Mar 23, 2022	9.9%	9.8%	9.5%	0.1%
Feb 16, 2022	9.3%	8.8%	8.6%	0.5%
Jan 19, 2022	8.7%	8.1%	8.2%	0.6%
Dec 15, 2021	7.9%	6.8%	7.1%	1.1%
Nov 17, 2021	6.5%	6%	6%	0.5%
Oct 20, 2021	5.9%	5.7%	5.4%	0.2%
Sep 15, 2021	5.3%	4.3%	4.2%	1%
Aug 18, 2021	3.9%	3.1%	3.1%	0.8%
Jul 14, 2021	2.7%	3%	2.3%	-0.3%
Jun 16, 2021	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	0.1%
May 19, 2021	2.5%	1.9%	2%	0.6%
Apr 21, 2021	1.7%		1.7%
Mar 24, 2021	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%
Feb 17, 2021	1.4%	1.2%	1.1%	0.2%
Jan 20, 2021	1.2%	1.1%	1%	0.1%
Dec 16, 2020	0.9%	0.9%	0.7%
Nov 18, 2020	0.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 21, 2020	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Sep 16, 2020	0%	0%	0.1%
Aug 19, 2020	0.1%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.2%
Jul 15, 2020	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	-0.1%
Jun 17, 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
May 20, 2020	0.6%	0.6%	0.9%
Apr 22, 2020	0.9%	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
Mar 25, 2020	0.4%	0.5%	0.7%	-0.1%
Feb 19, 2020	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Jan 15, 2020	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Dec 18, 2019	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	-0.1%
Nov 13, 2019	1.3%	1.5%	1.7%	-0.2%
Oct 16, 2019	1.7%	1.9%	2%	-0.2%
Sep 18, 2019	2%	2%	2%
Aug 14, 2019	2%	1.7%	1.7%	0.3%
Jul 17, 2019	1.7%	1.7%	2%
Jun 19, 2019	2%	2%	2.2%
May 22, 2019	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Apr 17, 2019	2.2%	2.2%	2.3%
Mar 20, 2019	2.2%	2.3%	2.4%	-0.1%
Feb 13, 2019	2.4%	2.3%	2.4%	0.1%
Jan 16, 2019	2.5%	2.4%	2.4%	0.1%
Dec 19, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.5%	0.1%
Nov 14, 2018	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Oct 17, 2018	2.4%	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Sep 19, 2018	2.1%	2.1%	2.3%
Aug 15, 2018	2.2%	2.1%	2.4%	0.1%
Jul 18, 2018	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
Jun 13, 2018	2.1%	2.5%	2%	-0.4%
May 23, 2018	2.4%	2.1%	2.7%	0.3%