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Euro Area EUR

Euro Area CPI Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.05

EUR

Actual:

129.3

Forecast: 129.35

Previous/Revision:

129.7

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 129.4

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation by tracking the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. Its primary focus is on assessing the cost of living and inflationary trends, including essential areas like housing, food, transportation, and healthcare, with key indicators including the annual percentage change in CPI; a reading above 2% is indicative of rising inflation, while below this figure signals lower inflation, and it is a national indicator representing the entire Eurozone.

Frequency

The Euro Area CPI is released monthly, typically on the first working day of the month following the reporting month, and the data provided is a final figure that reflects revisions of earlier preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Euro Area CPI as it is a crucial indicator of inflation, which influences central bank monetary policy decisions, subsequently affecting interest rates, currency valuations, and investment strategies. A higher-than-expected CPI reading can bolster the euro while driving down bond prices, whereas a lower figure may signal economic weakness and bearish sentiment in equities.

What Is It Derived From?

The CPI is derived from statistical data collected through surveys of consumer prices across various sectors, with a fixed basket of goods and services based on purchasing patterns of households. This data is compiled using weighted averages from a representative sample of products that consumers typically purchase, ensuring an accurate reflection of price changes.

Description

The Euro Area CPI is typically reported as a year-over-year percentage change (YoY), which allows for a long-term analysis of inflation trends and eliminates seasonal effects, aiding traders and policymakers in understanding structural price changes in the economy. Month-over-Month (MoM) and Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) changes may also be available but are less frequently highlighted in the context of this report due to the emphasis on YoY figures for broader economic assessment.

Additional Notes

The CPI serves as a leading indicator for future economic policies and often correlates closely with other economic measures like GDP growth and employment rates. Its significance is amplified by its role in shaping monetary policy, both within the Eurozone and globally, as inflation trends are pivotal for international economic relationships.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bearish for Bonds. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bullish for Bonds. A dovish tone, signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the Euro but good for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 17, 2025	129.3	129.35	129.7	-0.05
Nov 19, 2025	129.7	129.7	129.43
Oct 17, 2025	129.43	129.42	129.31	0.01
Sep 17, 2025	129.31	129.32	129.12	-0.01
Aug 20, 2025	129.12	129.1	129.1	0.02
Jul 17, 2025	129.1	129.07	128.7	0.03
Jun 18, 2025	128.71	128.73	128.77	-0.02
May 19, 2025	128.77	128.76	128.04	0.01
Apr 16, 2025	128.04	128.04	127.26
Mar 19, 2025	127.26	127.32	126.72	-0.06
Feb 24, 2025	126.72	126.71	127.07	0.01
Jan 17, 2025	127.07	127.08	126.62	-0.01
Dec 18, 2024	126.62	126.67	127.03	-0.05
Nov 19, 2024	127.03	127.03	126.6
Oct 17, 2024	126.6	126.63	126.72	-0.03
Sep 18, 2024	126.72	126.74	126.54	-0.02
Aug 20, 2024	126.54	126.6	126.6	-0.06
Jul 17, 2024	126.5	126.58	126.31	-0.08
Jun 18, 2024	126.31	126.32	126.04	-0.01
May 17, 2024	126.04	126.1	125.3	-0.06
Apr 17, 2024	125.3	125.33	124.4	-0.03
Mar 18, 2024	124.4	124.4	123.6
Feb 22, 2024	123.6	123.58	124.05	0.02
Jan 17, 2024	124.05	124.04	123.85	0.01
Dec 19, 2023	123.85	123.86	124.54	-0.01
Nov 17, 2023	124.54	124.55	124.43	-0.01
Oct 18, 2023	124.4	124.4	124.03
Sep 19, 2023	124.03	124.05	123.36	-0.02
Aug 18, 2023	123.36	123.4	123.5	-0.04
Jul 19, 2023	123.5	123.5	123.2
Jun 16, 2023	123.15	123.16	123.1	-0.01
May 17, 2023	123.12	123.2	122.3	-0.08
Apr 19, 2023	122.3	122.4	121.24	-0.1
Mar 17, 2023	121.24	121.23	120.27	0.01
Feb 23, 2023	120.27	120	120.52	0.27
Jan 18, 2023	120.52	121.2	120.95	-0.68
Dec 16, 2022	120.95	120.92	121.03	0.03
Nov 17, 2022	121.03	121.07	119.26	-0.04
Oct 19, 2022	119.26	119.3	117.85	-0.04
Sep 16, 2022	117.85	117.78	117.14	0.07
Aug 18, 2022	117.14	117.14	117.01
Jul 19, 2022	117.01	117	116.07	0.01
Jun 17, 2022	116.07	116.07	115.11
May 18, 2022	115.11	115.17	114.46	-0.06
Apr 21, 2022	114.46	114.5	111.74	-0.04
Mar 17, 2022	111.74	111.7	110.74	0.04