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Euro Area EUR

Euro Area Core Inflation Rate YoY Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: EUROSTAT

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

2.4%

Forecast: 2.4%

Previous/Revision:

2.4%

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate measures the change in prices for goods and services in the Eurozone, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, thereby providing a clearer insight into long-term inflation trends. It primarily focuses on assessing the underlying inflationary pressures within the economy, which can influence monetary policy decisions made by the European Central Bank.

Frequency

This economic event is released on a monthly basis and typically includes both preliminary estimates and final figures, with the final report being published around the 17th day of each month for the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Euro Area Core Inflation Rate closely as it directly affects perceptions of monetary policy in the Eurozone, influencing the value of the Euro and market expectations for interest rates. A higher-than-expected inflation rate may indicate tightening monetary policy, impacting equities and bonds, while a lower rate could lead to a dovish stance, affecting investor sentiment and asset prices.

What Is It Derived From?

The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate is calculated based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), utilizing data collected from various national statistical agencies within the Eurozone. The calculation involves analyzing price changes across a diverse basket of goods and services, where average price changes are aggregated to produce a comprehensive inflation measure.

Description

The Euro Area Core Inflation Rate is reported as a Year-over-Year (YoY) change, comparing data for the current month against the same month in the previous year to eliminate seasonal variations and provide a more accurate reflection of sustained price movements. This method is preferred as it illustrates longer-term inflation trends that are key for monetary policy formulation and economic forecasting.

Additional Notes

This indicator serves as a leading measure of inflation trends within the Eurozone, offering insights into consumer spending power and economic health. It often correlates with other inflation metrics, such as the headline inflation rate, and aids in assessing the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's monetary policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Euro, Bearish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Euro, Bullish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support is usually good for the Euro but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 17, 2025	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Nov 19, 2025	2.4%	2.4%	2.4%
Oct 17, 2025	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	0.1%
Sep 17, 2025	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Aug 20, 2025	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Jul 17, 2025	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%
Jun 18, 2025	2.3%	2.3%	2.7%
May 19, 2025	2.7%	2.7%	2.4%
Apr 16, 2025	2.4%	2.4%	2.6%
Mar 19, 2025	2.6%	2.6%	2.7%
Feb 24, 2025	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Jan 17, 2025	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Dec 18, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Nov 19, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.7%
Oct 17, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.8%
Sep 18, 2024	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%
Aug 20, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Jul 17, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Jun 18, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	2.7%
May 17, 2024	2.7%	2.7%	2.9%
Apr 17, 2024	2.9%	2.9%	3.1%
Mar 18, 2024	3.1%	3.1%	3.3%
Feb 22, 2024	3.3%	3.3%	3.4%
Jan 17, 2024	3.4%	3.4%	3.6%
Dec 19, 2023	3.6%	3.6%	4.2%
Nov 17, 2023	4.2%	4.2%	4.5%
Oct 18, 2023	4.5%	4.5%	5.3%
Sep 19, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.5%
Aug 18, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Jul 19, 2023	5.5%	5.4%	5.3%	0.1%
Jun 16, 2023	5.3%	5.3%	5.6%
May 17, 2023	5.6%	5.6%	5.7%
Apr 19, 2023	5.7%	5.7%	5.6%
Mar 17, 2023	5.6%	5.6%	5.3%
Feb 23, 2023	5.3%	5.2%	5.2%	0.1%
Jan 18, 2023	5.2%	5.2%	5%
Dec 16, 2022	5%	5%	5%
Nov 17, 2022	5%	5%	4.8%
Oct 19, 2022	4.8%	4.8%	4.3%
Sep 16, 2022	4.3%	4.3%	4%
Aug 18, 2022	4%	4%	3.7%
Jul 19, 2022	3.7%	3.7%	3.8%
Jun 17, 2022	3.8%	3.8%	3.5%
May 18, 2022	3.5%	3.5%	2.9%
Apr 21, 2022	2.9%	3%	2.7%	-0.1%
Mar 17, 2022	2.7%	2.7%	2.3%
Feb 23, 2022	2.3%	2.3%	2.6%
Jan 20, 2022	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
Dec 17, 2021	2.6%	2.6%	2%
Nov 17, 2021	2%	2.1%	1.9%	-0.1%
Oct 20, 2021	1.9%	1.9%	1.6%
Sep 17, 2021	1.6%	1.6%	0.7%
Aug 18, 2021	0.7%	0.7%	0.9%
Jul 16, 2021	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Jun 17, 2021	1%	0.9%	0.7%	0.1%
May 19, 2021	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	-0.1%
Apr 16, 2021	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
Mar 17, 2021	1.1%	1.1%	1.4%
Feb 23, 2021	1.4%	1.4%	0.2%
Jan 20, 2021	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Dec 17, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Nov 18, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Oct 16, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Sep 17, 2020	0.4%	0.4%	1.2%
Aug 19, 2020	1.2%	1.2%	0.8%
Jul 17, 2020	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Jun 17, 2020	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
May 20, 2020	0.9%	0.9%	1%
Apr 17, 2020	1%	1%	1.2%
Mar 18, 2020	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%
Feb 21, 2020	1.1%	1.1%	1.3%
Jan 17, 2020	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
Dec 18, 2019	1.3%	1.3%	1.1%
Nov 15, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	1%
Oct 16, 2019	1%	1%	0.9%
Sep 18, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Aug 19, 2019	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
Jul 17, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	0.8%
Jun 18, 2019	0.8%	0.8%	1.3%
May 17, 2019	1.3%	1.2%	0.8%	0.1%
Apr 17, 2019	0.8%	0.8%	1%
Mar 15, 2019	1%	1%	1.1%
Feb 22, 2019	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Jan 17, 2019	1%	1%	1%
Dec 17, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
Nov 16, 2018	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Oct 17, 2018	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Sep 17, 2018	1%	1%	1.1%
Aug 17, 2018	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Jul 18, 2018	0.9%	1%	1.1%	-0.1%
Jun 15, 2018	1.1%	1.1%	0.8%
May 16, 2018	0.7%	0.7%	1%
Apr 18, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Mar 16, 2018	1%	1%	1%
Feb 23, 2018	1%	1%	0.9%
Jan 17, 2018	0.9%	1%	0.9%	-0.1%
Dec 18, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Nov 16, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
Oct 17, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%
Sep 18, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%
Aug 17, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	1.1%
Jul 17, 2017	1.1%	1.1%	0.9%
Jun 16, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%
May 17, 2017	1.2%	1.2%	0.7%
Apr 19, 2017	0.7%	0.7%	0.9%
Mar 16, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Feb 22, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jan 18, 2017	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Dec 16, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Nov 17, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Oct 17, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Sep 15, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Aug 18, 2016	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Jul 15, 2016	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Jun 16, 2016	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
May 18, 2016	0.7%	0.7%	1%
Apr 14, 2016	1%	1%	0.8%
Mar 17, 2016	0.8%	0.7%	1%	0.1%
Feb 25, 2016	1%	1%	0.9%
Jan 19, 2016	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Dec 16, 2015	0.9%	0.9%	1.1%
Nov 16, 2015	1.1%	1%	0.9%	0.1%
Oct 16, 2015	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Sep 16, 2015	0.9%	1%	1%	-0.1%
Aug 14, 2015	1%	1%	0.8%
Jul 16, 2015	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%
Jun 17, 2015	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%
May 19, 2015	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%