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United States USD

United States Fed Interest Rate Decision

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: Federal Reserve

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

3.75%

Forecast: 3.75%

Previous/Revision:

Period:

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 3.75%

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Interest Rate Decision measures the U.S. central bank's policy regarding its target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to one another overnight. This decision primarily focuses on assessing monetary policy's stance on inflation control, employment rates, and overall economic stability, with key indicators being changes in interest rates, inflation rates, and employment figures.

Frequency

The interest rate decision is announced eight times a year at regularly scheduled FOMC meetings, with the results released following each meeting, providing either a preliminary announcement of policy changes or final confirmations.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor this decision because changes in the federal funds rate can significantly impact financial markets, influencing currency values (such as the USD), equity prices, and bond yields. Higher-than-expected interest rate hikes are typically perceived as bullish for the currency but bearish for stocks, as they can indicate tighter monetary policy that may constrain economic growth.

What Is It Derived From?

The interest rate is determined through a deliberative process that includes an analysis of economic conditions, surveys, and discussions among committee members, which typically involve insights from various areas, including employment data, inflation forecasts, and sectoral growth assessments. The decision-making process incorporates various economic indicators, weighted to reflect their significance, and follows standard practices established by the Federal Reserve.

Description

The FOMC Interest Rate Decision is crucial in shaping the economic landscape and influences credit availability and consumer spending behavior. By adjusting the interest rates, the Federal Reserve aims to manage inflation and stabilize the currency, making this decision a key determinant of the overall economic outlook.

Additional Notes

The rate decision is considered a lagging indicator because it reflects past economic conditions and projections rather than predicting future trends. Its implications extend beyond the U.S. economy, affecting global financial markets and international trade relations as expectations shift around U.S. monetary policy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually bad for the USD but good for Stocks due to lower borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 10, 2025	3.75%	3.75%	4%
Oct 29, 2025	4%	4%	4.25%
Sep 17, 2025	4.25%	4.25%	4.5%
Jul 30, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Jun 18, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
May 07, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Mar 19, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Jan 29, 2025	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Dec 18, 2024	4.5%	4.5%	4.75%
Nov 07, 2024	4.75%	4.75%	5%
Sep 18, 2024	5%	5.25%	5.5%	-0.25%
Jul 31, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Jun 12, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
May 01, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Mar 20, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Jan 31, 2024	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Dec 13, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Nov 01, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Sep 20, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%
Jul 26, 2023	5.5%	5.5%	5.25%
Jun 14, 2023	5.25%	5.25%	5.25%
May 03, 2023	5.25%	5.25%	5%
Mar 22, 2023	5%	5%	4.75%
Feb 01, 2023	4.75%	4.75%	4.5%
Dec 14, 2022	4.5%	4.5%	4%
Nov 02, 2022	4%	4%	3.25%
Sep 21, 2022	3.25%	3.25%	2.5%
Jul 27, 2022	2.5%	2.5%	1.75%
Jun 15, 2022	1.75%	1.5%	1%	0.25%
May 04, 2022	1%	1%	0.5%
Mar 16, 2022	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Jan 26, 2022	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Dec 15, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 03, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 22, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jul 28, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 16, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Apr 28, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Mar 17, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jan 27, 2021	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Dec 16, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Nov 05, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 16, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jul 29, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 10, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Apr 29, 2020	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Mar 15, 2020	0.25%		1.25%
Mar 03, 2020	1.25%		1.75%
Jan 29, 2020	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Dec 11, 2019	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Oct 30, 2019	1.75%	1.75%	2%
Sep 18, 2019	2%	2%	2.25%
Jul 31, 2019	2.25%	2.25%	2.5%
Jun 19, 2019	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
May 01, 2019	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Mar 20, 2019	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Jan 30, 2019	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%
Dec 19, 2018	2.5%	2.5%	2.25%
Nov 08, 2018	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
Sep 26, 2018	2.25%	2.25%	2%
Aug 01, 2018	2%	2%	2%
Jun 13, 2018	2%	2%	1.75%
May 02, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.75%
Mar 21, 2018	1.75%	1.75%	1.5%
Jan 31, 2018	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%
Dec 13, 2017	1.5%	1.5%	1.25%
Nov 01, 2017	1.25%	1.25%	1.25%
Sep 20, 2017	1.25%	1.25%	1.25%
Jul 26, 2017	1.25%	1.25%	1.25%
Jun 14, 2017	1.25%	1.25%	1%
May 03, 2017	1%	1%	1%
Mar 15, 2017	1%	1%	0.75%
Feb 01, 2017	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
Dec 14, 2016	0.75%	0.75%	0.5%
Nov 02, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 21, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 27, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jun 15, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 27, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Mar 16, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Jan 27, 2016	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Dec 16, 2015	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%
Oct 28, 2015	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 17, 2015	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jul 29, 2015	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Jun 17, 2015	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%