Gold under pressure as traders brace for delayed US NFP release

• Gold trades on the back foot as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data slate.
• Focus turns to the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls reports for October and November, due at 13:30 GMT.
• Technically, Gold shows signs of near-term consolidation after repeated rejection near the $4,350 area, even as the broader uptrend remains intact.

Gold (XAU/USD) trades on the back foot on Tuesday as traders trim exposure ahead of a heavy US economic data docket that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path into 2026. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering around $4,278, giving back part of its recent gains after struggling to sustain traction near record highs.

Attention is firmly on the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports for October and November, which were postponed due to the recent government shutdown and are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT.

The Fed’s monetary policy path has continued to dominate market sentiment since last week’s 25 basis point (bps) rate cut. The central bank has delivered 75 bps of easing this year amid signs of labour market cooling, even as inflation remains above the 2% target.

The upcoming data is expected to play a key role in shaping near-term rate expectations, with weaker-than-expected readings likely to reinforce bets that policymakers could be forced to act sooner than currently anticipated.

In addition to the NFP releases, traders will also monitor the ADP Employment Change four-week average, Retail Sales, and preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data.

Market movers: Peace-talk optimism, US jobs data and Fed signals in focus

• Reports of progress in US-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks have modestly eased geopolitical tensions, limiting safe-haven flows into Gold. Ukrainian officials described “real progress” from peace talks in Berlin, saying negotiations with US envoys have been constructive and productive, including discussions around strong security guarantees for Kyiv. US President Donald Trump echoed the optimism, saying a peace deal is “closer now than we have been, ever,” while senior US officials indicated Washington is prepared to offer NATO-style security guarantees as part of a negotiated framework.
• Economists expect the November NFP report to show job gains of around 50,000, with the Unemployment Rate seen holding at 4.4%. The release will also include a partial update for October, after some labour-market data was not collected due to the government shutdown. For context, payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs in September. It is also worth noting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned at last week’s meeting that reported NFP gains since April may be overstated by roughly 60,000.
• At last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is “well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves.” Even so, policymakers remain divided over the need for additional easing in 2026, leaving investors uncertain about the policy outlook. Markets are largely pricing in a hold in January, with nearly a 40% probability of a rate cut in March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that monetary policy is well-positioned as the US heads into 2026, noting that inflation is expected to moderate further while labour-market risks have increased.
• In contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Miran reiterated his dovish stance, arguing that underlying inflation pressures are lower than headline measures suggest and cautioning against keeping policy overly restrictive. Miran, who favoured a larger 50 basis point rate cut at the last meeting, said a faster pace of easing would move policy closer to the neutral rate, warning that holding policy too tight risks unnecessary job losses. He added that future dissents will depend on policy decisions and said he would like rates to decline further.
• Markets are also closely monitoring developments around the potential Fed leadership change, with Reuters reporting that Kevin Hassett’s candidacy has faced pushback from individuals close to President Donald Trump, shifting attention toward former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who is increasingly seen as the leading contender to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD eyes $4,250 support after failing near $4,350

From a technical perspective, Gold’s near-term bias has turned slightly bearish to neutral after sellers once again stepped in near the $4,350 region, pushing prices lower from recent highs.

On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is trading below the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $4,291, which is acting as immediate resistance and signalling that sellers retain short-term control.

A sustained move back above this level would be needed to ease downside pressure, with the next upside hurdle seen around $4,350, ahead of a potential retest of the all-time high near $4,381.

On the downside, $4,250 marks immediate support, while the 100-period SMA at $4,210.31 provides a key dynamic support zone. As long as prices hold above the rising 100-period SMA, the broader uptrend remains intact. However, a decisive break below this level would tilt the near-term structure lower.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back toward the neutral 50 area, reflecting fading bullish momentum and reinforcing the view that Gold may remain in short-term consolidation before attempting another leg higher.