Mexico lowers its 2025 GDP forecast to 0.6% from 1.2%

The Mexican central bank cut its growth forecasts today:

• Sees +0.6% this year from +1.2%
• Sees 2026 growth of about 1.8%
• Sees core inflation this year at 3.3% compared to 3.0% previously
• Balance of risks for inflation remains to the upside
• Headline inflation seen converging to 3% target in Q3 2026, sooner than Q4 previously forecast

Sub-1% GDP growth in a developing market isn't going to get anyone excited. If there is some certainty around trade terms with the US, there could be some upside but I don't think that will be a 2025 story.