UBS said a U.S. government shutdown would block the release of key economic data, but expects the Fed to press ahead with a 25bp cut in October, relying on private surveys and its own data to guide policy.
EUR/USD registers gains of over 0.20% on Monday amid worries of a possible government shutdown in the US, while data in the Eurozone, showed that sentiment improved but failed to propel the shared currency higher. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1726 after hitting a daily low of 1.1701.
MUFG says a Koizumi win in Japan’s LDP leadership race could lift the yen, with reduced political uncertainty paving the way for a BOJ rate hike in October. Rival Sanae Takaichi, aligned with “Abenomics,” favours looser policy.
TD Securities says RBA testimony points to no urgency for rate cuts, with domestic data firming, the job market still near full employment, and signs of an economic upturn. Cuts this year look harder to justify unless labour conditions deteriorate.
Goldman Sachs says equities are pricing in a soft landing with fiscal-driven growth into 2026, while bonds are bracing for labour-market weakness. The split puts extra weight on the jobs report and other key data releases.
Westpac sees the RBA holding rates at 3.6% in September, with an August inflation surprise set to temper its messaging. The bank still expects cuts in November, February and May, though it warns easing may be slower or smaller if labour-market softening offsets inflation risks.
Gold price advances close to 2% on Monday and trades near record highs of $3,833 as market participants seeking safety bought the yellow metal amid fears of a government shutdown in the United States. XAU/USD trades at $3,827 at the time of writing.
The GBP/USD pair advances on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) trims some of last week’s gains as a busy economic docket in the US approaches. The pair trades at 1.3430, up 0.24%.
The swing area and 100-hour MA near 1.3900 is support. The 200-day MA at 1.3970 is resistance. Trader will be leaning against the levels and looking for the break.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil kicks off the week on a softer footing, resuming its downside correction after peaking at a seven-week high on Friday. At the time of writing, WTI trades near $63.75 per barrel, down nearly 2.0% on the day.
Gold (XAU/USD) shines bright at the start of the new week, climbing past $3,800 for the first time. The yellow metal continues its historic run, printing yet another all-time high near $3,833 on Monday.
What are the technical chart telling traders for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD? I will go through what levels are in play and why as the new trading week begins for US traders.
Upward momentum continues to increase; if US Dollar (USD) breaks above 7.1500, the next level to watch is 7.1600, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Euro (EUR) is entering Monday’s NA session with a marginal 0.1% gain as it attempts to extend its modest recovery from last week’s lows, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appears to have entered a consolidation phase between 0.5760 and 0.5790. In the longer run, the outlook for NZD remains negative; the next level to watch is 0.5730, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Recovery in Australian Dollar (AUD) has room to test 0.6565; a continued rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest AUD weakness, likely toward 0.6500, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3375 and 1.3430. In the longer run, downward momentum is starting to slow, but only a breach of 1.3445 would indicate that the weakness in GBP has stabilised, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Tomorrow morning, the Australian central bank will hold its regular meeting, bringing this nerve-wracking month of nine G10 central bank meetings to a close.
Pound Sterling (GBP) has been underperforming since around the middle of September, with plenty of focus on whether the UK is 'going bust' or will require an IMF bail-out – neither of which is likely, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
While Germany continues its soul-searching on the future path for growth and France remains mired in budget uncertainty, Spain is doing very well, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
In the months leading up to and following the November 2024 election, the USD performed similarly to how it did in 2016/17, i.e. before and after Donald Trump's first election as US President.
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