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Forex Today: US inflation is back
Forex Today: US inflation is back
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its bullish momentum well in place for yet another day, this time revisiting levels last seen in April 2025 amid steady speculation of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, with investors even mulling the idea of a half-point interest rate raise.
Inflation
EURUSD
DollarIndex
Fed
Currencies
Silver tumbles over 3% as Fed rate hike bets fuel US Dollar rally
Silver tumbles over 3% as Fed rate hike bets fuel US Dollar rally
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Thursday, losing 3% on the day to trade around $50.15 at the time of writing.
Silver
XAGUSD
Metals
Commodities
Fed’s Goolsbee warns hot inflation is no fluke as economy overheats
Fed’s Goolsbee warns hot inflation is no fluke as economy overheats
Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in an interview with Yahoo! Finance that inflation has been “well above target,” and that Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) "wasn’t a one-off.”
Fed
DollarIndex
Inflation
CentralBanks
InterestRate
British Pound falls toward 1.3200 as Fed hawks outshine solid UK growth
British Pound falls toward 1.3200 as Fed hawks outshine solid UK growth
The Pound Sterling prolongs its agony versus the US Dollar, diving for the third straight day and approaching the 1.3200 level, even as US jobless claims came in above forecasts, while UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data show the economy is growing steadily. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3224, down 0.4%.
GBPUSD
Fundamental Analysis
Majors
Technical Analysis
Currencies
Australian Dollar slides to 10-month low as Fed tightening bets gather pace
Australian Dollar slides to 10-month low as Fed tightening bets gather pace
AUD/USD extends losses on Thursday, slipping to its lowest level since January as investors turn to the US Dollar (USD) for safety. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations lend further support to the Greenback. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6808, down 0.60% on the day.
AUDUSD
Fed
RBA
DollarIndex
Inflation
Euro struggles near May 2025 lows as Fed hawks keep Dollar supported
Euro struggles near May 2025 lows as Fed hawks keep Dollar supported
EUR/USD trades flat during Thursday’s American trading hours as the US Dollar (USD) gives back some ground after hitting a fresh year-to-date high. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1087, up from an intraday low of 1.1066, its weakest level since May 2025.
EURUSD
Fed
ECB
Inflation
InterestRate
Fed’s Hammack says inflation is worsening, favors gradual hikes
Fed’s Hammack says inflation is worsening, favors gradual hikes
Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack recognized on Thursday that the Fed is doing good work on the “job side of the mandate,” but it “has been missing on the inflation mandate for years.”
Fed
CentralBanks
DollarIndex
InterestRate
Inflation
US President Donald Trump: “We don’t need a deal with Iran”
US President Donald Trump: “We don’t need a deal with Iran”
US President Donald Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran in one of several Truth Social posts on Thursday. In the same post, Trump said he had asked Vice President JD Vance to focus on what he described as widespread crime and corruption in Democratic-led cities and states.
OfficialTrump
MiddleEast
Iran
Oil
US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200K last week
US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 200K last week
According to a report from the US Department of Labor (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 200K for the week ending November 7.
Employment
UnitedStates
EconomicIndicator
USD/JPY: Intervention risk caps upside – BBH
USD/JPY: Intervention risk caps upside – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that USD/JPY has tested the 160.00 resistance area, reviving intervention concerns after Japan’s large summer FX operations. Officials warn recent currency moves have been too fast.
USDJPY
Currencies
Japan
USD/CAD Price Forecast: RSI near 66 signals strong buying interest
USD/CAD Price Forecast: RSI near 66 signals strong buying interest
USD/CAD is little changed on Thursday, holding near a one-month high. A broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) and diverging interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) keep the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on the back foot.
USDCAD
Fed
BOC
Technical Analysis
103.08: US Dollar Index hits a fresh year-to-date high as Fed hike bets build
103.08: US Dollar Index hits a fresh year-to-date high as Fed hike bets build
The US Dollar (USD) has extended its upward trajectory across global foreign exchange markets, propelling the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a fresh year-to-date high of 103.08 and returning the currency to its April 2025 levels.
DollarIndex
Fed
Banks
GDiscover
New Zealand Dollar steadies around 0.5550 as US Dollar bulls take a break
New Zealand Dollar steadies around 0.5550 as US Dollar bulls take a break
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, holding losses after the last two days’ reversal.
NZDUSD
RBNZ
Fed
Currencies
Fundamental Analysis
US Dollar: Rally cools as Fed talk eyed – BBH
US Dollar: Rally cools as Fed talk eyed – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the Dollar Index has retreated from its post-October CPI highs, with the USD rally seen as stretched versus rate differentials. He highlights that stagnant US real wages may cap expectations for a 50bps Fed hike in December.
DollarIndex
Banks
Fed
Economists agree: ECB will hike rates to 2.75% in December, Reuters poll shows
Economists agree: ECB will hike rates to 2.75% in December, Reuters poll shows
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December, according to a Reuters poll published on Thursday. All 71 economists surveyed expect a hike next month.
ECB
Inflation
InterestRate
GDP
British Pound: Resilient data backs BoE hikes – BBH
British Pound: Resilient data backs BoE hikes – BBH
Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) reports that the Pound (GBP) showed limited reaction to solid UK Q3 GDP, with 0.7% q/q growth driven by consumption and investment.
BOE
Banks
GBPUSD
Japanese Yen finds relief as officials warn against rapid currency moves
Japanese Yen finds relief as officials warn against rapid currency moves
USD/JPY trades slightly lower on Thursday after climbing to 159.94, its highest level in more than two months.
USDJPY
Fed
BOJ
Inflation
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Consolidating above 0.8350 after rejection at 0.8370
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Consolidating above 0.8350 after rejection at 0.8370
The Euro (EUR) is consolidating at a slightly higher range against the British Pound (GBP) this week, mainly favoured by the lower Oil prices, although the broader trend is still showing a capped tone.
EURGBP
Technical Analysis
Crosses
Currencies
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Breakdown of H&S pattern keeps the pair under pressure
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Breakdown of H&S pattern keeps the pair under pressure
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its currency peers on Thursday, trading 0.15% down at around 0.6833 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trade.
AUDUSD
Fed
RBA
InterestRate
Breaking
Canadian Dollar picks up from four-week lows as the US Dollar loses steam
Canadian Dollar picks up from four-week lows as the US Dollar loses steam
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) posts marginal gains on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from recent highs against most peers in a quiet market session.
USDCAD
Currencies
BOC
Fed
Gold slips to fresh yearly low as Fed hike bets build and US stocks slide
Gold slips to fresh yearly low as Fed hike bets build and US stocks slide
Gold (XAU/USD) slides to a fresh year-to-date low on Thursday as bets on more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes lift the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $3,853, down more than 3% on the day.
Gold
Fed
DollarIndex
Inflation
Technical Analysis
US 10-year yield: Up move eyes 5.36% – Societe Generale
US 10-year yield: Up move eyes 5.36% – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s rates team notes a sharp advance in 10‑year US Treasuries after defending key trendline support near 4.81%, with yields now challenging the 50‑day moving average. The bank sees scope for consolidation between 4.81% and 5.05%, but if resistance breaks, a larger move towards the 5.16%–5.18% gap and October’s high around 5.36% is envisaged.
Bonds
UnitedStates
Banks
US Dollar Index (DXY) trims gains after hitting 19-month highs at 103.08
US Dollar Index (DXY) trims gains after hitting 19-month highs at 103.08
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reversed previous daily gains, returning to levels below 103.00 after hitting fresh 19-month highs at 103.08 earlier in the day.
DollarIndex
Currencies
Fed
USD/JPY: Intervention risk near 160 – Societe Generale
USD/JPY: Intervention risk near 160 – Societe Generale
Societe Generale notes USD/JPY trading just below 160, with Japan’s Ministry of Finance warning markets not to forget FX intervention risks as yields and Dollar strength persist.
USDJPY
Banks
Technical Analysis
Japan
Iran conflict: US strategy split and blockade risks – Rabobank
Iran conflict: US strategy split and blockade risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily outlines diverging US positions on Iran, with Vice-President Vance exploring direct talks while President Donald Trump criticises the existing MoU and demands “total victory.”
Politics
UnitedStates
MiddleEast
RiskAversion
Banks
EUR/USD: Slippery slope if 1.10 breaks – Societe Generale
EUR/USD: Slippery slope if 1.10 breaks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights renewed Dollar strength pressuring EUR/USD towards the key 1.10 level, with the pair already below its 200-week moving average and challenging the May 2025 trough.
EURUSD
Banks
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $50.91 per troy ounce, down 1.57% from the $51.72 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver
Commodities
Metals
Oil: Hormuz mine strikes support Brent rebound – Commerzbank
Oil: Hormuz mine strikes support Brent rebound – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research highlights escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reported mine strikes on tankers and disrupted LNG flows, as a key driver of Oil’s rebound.
Oil
Banks
Commodities
WTI
Brent
CEE FX: Strong Dollar and energy rebound weigh – ING
CEE FX: Strong Dollar and energy rebound weigh – ING
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that rising global energy prices and a stronger Dollar are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. EUR/PLN is near 4.420, EUR/CZK at its highest since mid-October, and EUR/HUF above 365. ING maintains a bearish view on CEE FX, expecting further downside for regional currencies as markets follow the broader global narrative ahead of local GDP data and CNB minutes.
Banks
Hungary
Poland
EURHUF
CzechRepublic
US Dollar: Fed repricing supports stronger levels – MUFG
US Dollar: Fed repricing supports stronger levels – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman highlights that the US Dollar has extended gains, pushing the Dollar Index to a fresh year-to-date high as markets price a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
DollarIndex
Fed
Banks
Levels
Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar despite ECB rate hike doubts, rising oil prices
Euro holds gains against Canadian Dollar despite ECB rate hike doubts, rising oil prices
EUR/CAD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.5810 during European hours on Thursday. However, the currency cross may face further challenges as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure.
Eurozone
Macroeconomics
EURCAD
Crosses
Canada
US labor market: Watching claims and wages – UBS
US labor market: Watching claims and wages – UBS
Paul Donovan at UBS points out that US initial jobless claims may draw attention in a quiet data calendar, alongside upcoming Housing data.
Employment
UnitedStates
Banks
Macroeconomics
India: RBI seen hiking if CPI tops 6% – Commerzbank
India: RBI seen hiking if CPI tops 6% – Commerzbank
Commerzbank Research expects India’s October CPI inflation to rise above 6% year‑on‑year, driven by high Oil prices, strong domestic demand and an unfavourable base. The report notes RBI’s projections keep inflation near the top of its target band through mid‑2027, implying further rate hikes. OIS pricing suggests cumulative tightening of nearly 90bp by February 2027.
India
Inflation
CPI
Banks
Macroeconomics
UK GDP: Growth stays resilient – UBS
UK GDP: Growth stays resilient – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan notes that UK GDP has maintained recent strength, with further gains in the third quarter driven mainly by Services. He highlights that UK consumers have seen small positive real income growth and still have scope to lower savings rates, supporting ongoing consumption.
UnitedKingdom
GDP
Macroeconomics
Banks
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bears testing support at previous highs around 0.8315
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bears testing support at previous highs around 0.8315
The US Dollar (USD) posts moderate losses against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, trimming gains after a 1.7% rally over the previous two days pushed momentum indicators into overbought levels on intraday charts.
USDCHF
Technical Analysis
Majors
Currencies
WTI Price Forecast: Downside bias persists while below 100-SMA hurdle near $86.80
WTI Price Forecast: Downside bias persists while below 100-SMA hurdle near $86.80
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday, climbing back above the $86.00 mark during the first half of the European session.
Oil
Commodities
MiddleEast
Technical Analysis
WTI
US Dollar: Hawkish skew supports upside risks – ING
US Dollar: Hawkish skew supports upside risks – ING
ING strategists led by Francesco Pesole note the Dollar’s rally is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric and stronger US inflation, pushing DXY back to April 2025 levels. They stress this is a rates-driven move, with real front-end differentials supporting Dollar momentum. The team continues to see upside risks in coming days, with PPI flagged as a potential catalyst for another USD leg higher.
DollarIndex
Fed
Banks
Macroeconomics
USD/JPY: Verbal intervention as pair nears 160 – MUFG
USD/JPY: Verbal intervention as pair nears 160 – MUFG
Lee Hardman at MUFG notes that USD/JPY has rebounded toward 160.00 as the stronger US Dollar and hawkish Fed repricing unwind September’s BoJ-driven correction.
USDJPY
Banks
Currencies
Majors
Dow Jones futures remain steady amid hawkish Fed rate outlook, Nvidia leadership turmoil
Dow Jones futures remain steady amid hawkish Fed rate outlook, Nvidia leadership turmoil
Dow Jones futures remain steady around 52,580 during the European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.43% to trade around 7,610, and Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.92% to trade around 28,210.
DowJones
SP500
Nasdaq
Macroeconomics
Equities
Global equities: Nvidia turmoil raises chip and AI risks – Rabobank
Global equities: Nvidia turmoil raises chip and AI risks – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Global Daily notes that Nvidia’s board is reportedly discussing removing Jensen Huang as CEO after personal and export-control related allegations, creating turbulence for global equities given heavy US and AI concentration.
Equities
Nasdaq
Banks
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