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BoC preview: a rate cut is expected but the focus will centre on forward guidance
BoC preview: a rate cut is expected but the focus will centre on forward guidance
The BoC is widely expected to cut by 25 bps bringing their policy rate to 2.25%. Will the central bank signal an end to the easing cycle or keep the market guessing on another cut?
Fed poised to cut rates again today but will there be hints about a move in December?
Fed poised to cut rates again today but will there be hints about a move in December?
Fed chair Powell likely to err on the side of caution but markets are believing that another rate cut after today should be a given
USD/CNH: Continued decline below 7.0860 is unlikely – UOB Group
USD/CNH: Continued decline below 7.0860 is unlikely – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could test 7.0860; a continued decline below this level is unlikely. The next support at 7.0700 is also unlikely to come under threat.
Banks
Technical Analysis
USDCNH
USD/JPY might drop further to 151.30 – UOB Group
USD/JPY might drop further to 151.30 – UOB Group
Strong momentum suggests US Dollar (USD) could drop further to 151.30; it remains to be seen if 151.00 will come into view. In the longer run, USD could weaken, but any decline is likely part of a lower range of 151.00/152.70, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis
Banks
NZD/USD is likely to test 0.5800 in short term – UOB Group
NZD/USD is likely to test 0.5800 in short term – UOB Group
There is a chance for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to test 0.5800; a clear break above this level appears unlikely.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
Fed preview: what's priced in and what could surprise the market?
Fed preview: what's priced in and what could surprise the market?
The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 3.75-4.00% and announce an end to QT. The base case is for the central bank to keep the status quo, but there's a small chance we could get a hawkish surprise
DXY: FOMC tonight – OCBC
DXY: FOMC tonight – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) continued to ease slightly from recent highs. DXY last at 98.82, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
Fed
AUD/USD: Unlikely to be able to break above 0.6630 today – UOB Group
AUD/USD: Unlikely to be able to break above 0.6630 today – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could continue to strengthen but is unlikely to be able to break above 0.6630 today. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest AUD strength; the next level to watch is 0.6630, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
USD/CAD heavy ahead of BOC policy decision – BBH
USD/CAD heavy ahead of BOC policy decision – BBH
USD/CAD trades below its 200-day moving average as markets await the Bank of Canada’s rate decision. A widely expected 25bps cut to 2.25% is unlikely to mark the start of an aggressive easing cycle, with fiscal support and firm inflation arguing against deeper cuts, BBH FX analysts report.
USDCAD
Banks
BOC
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD might decline further to 1.3210 – UOB Group
GBP/USD might decline further to 1.3210 – UOB Group
Renewed downward momentum suggests Pound Sterling (GBP) could decline further to 1.3210, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
GBPUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Resistance at 0.5805 is likely to hold bulls  
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Resistance at 0.5805 is likely to hold bulls  
 The New Zealand Dollar’s recovery against the US Dollar stalled just below 0.5800 on Wednesday. The pair maintains a near-term positive trend intact so far, but the resistance area in the vicinity of 0.5800 is likely to pose a significant challenge for bulls.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis
Currencies
EUR/USD might test and even rise above 1.1680 – UOB Group
EUR/USD might test and even rise above 1.1680 – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 1.1630 and 1.1670.
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests confluence support zone around 177.00, nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests confluence support zone around 177.00, nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 177.10 during the European hours on Wednesday.
EURJPY
Crosses
Technical Analysis
USD/CNH: Guided lower by fix – OCBC
USD/CNH: Guided lower by fix – OCBC
USD/CNY continued to trade with a heavy bias, guided lower by PBOC fix – now under 7.09. USD/CNH was last at 7.0998, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Banks
USDCNH
Technical Analysis
USD/CAD: Will the Bank of Canada cut rates again? – Commerzbank
USD/CAD: Will the Bank of Canada cut rates again? – Commerzbank
This afternoon, the Bank of Canada will begin this week's series of four G10 central bank meetings. Just under two weeks ago, the market began to anticipate another rate cut of 25 basis points, and is now consistently factoring this in with an estimated probability of around 80%.
Banks
Technical Analysis
USDCAD
BOC
Canada
AUD: Bias remains for upside play – OCBC
AUD: Bias remains for upside play – OCBC
Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run-up, helped by a firmer AU CPI print for 3Q while prospects of better US-China relations, firmer RMB and pro-risk appetite remain supportive of AUD. Pair was last at 0.66 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
RBA
USD: Some upside risks, but nothing like September – ING
USD: Some upside risks, but nothing like September – ING
When the Fed delivered a well-telegraphed 25bp cut in September, the US Dollar (USD) rallied. Back then, USD positioning was heavily short, and some hawkishly perceived comments by Powell exacerbated the correction, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
Fed
USD/JPY: Bias for downside play – OCBC
USD/JPY: Bias for downside play – OCBC
USD/JPY continued to trade lower on comments from MoF officials that they are watching JPY closely and on comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Pair was last at 152.27 levels.
USDJPY
Banks
Technical Analysis
BOJ
EUR/USD hesitates with all eyes on the Fed's monetary policy decision
EUR/USD hesitates with all eyes on the Fed's monetary policy decision
EUR/USD is trading with minor losses on Wednesday, changing hands at 1.1635 at the time of writing, yet with bearish attempts limited above 1.1618.
EURUSD
Majors
Currencies
Technical Analysis
SEO
CAD: BoC to cut 25bp today – ING
CAD: BoC to cut 25bp today – ING
Bank of Canada is set to cut rates by 25bp today.
Banks
USDCAD
BOC
Technical Analysis
Canada
The ADP data released yesterday could hurt Fed's conviction for a December cut
The ADP data released yesterday could hurt Fed's conviction for a December cut
The market is 100% sure on another rate cut in December, but what if the Fed casts doubt on it?
EUR: Soft momentum on the day – ING
EUR: Soft momentum on the day – ING
EUR/USD lost some ground overnight and is lagging other G10 currencies this week, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Banks
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Momentum
AUD: A rate cut seems unlikely now – Commerzbank
AUD: A rate cut seems unlikely now – Commerzbank
In September, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged but hinted that it wanted to cut them further. Although it was prepared for inflation to rise slightly again over the coming months, the central bank did not appear particularly concerned.
AUDUSD
Banks
RBA
Technical Analysis
Australia
European indices hold a more tepid mood to start the day
European indices hold a more tepid mood to start the day
It's a mixed mood in the equities space with US futures keeping higher though
Stocks
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 1.3950, lower rectangle boundary
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds losses below 1.3950, lower rectangle boundary
USD/CAD extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around 1.3930 during the early European hours on Wednesday. The short-term price momentum is weaker as the pair is falling below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
USDCAD
Majors
Technical Analysis
Canada
Eurostoxx futures flat in early European trading
Eurostoxx futures flat in early European trading
Not too much in it as we look to the session ahead
Stocks
FX option expiries for 29 October 10am New York cut
FX option expiries for 29 October 10am New York cut
A look at what is on the board for today
Options
Forex
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers further to $47.50; not out of the woods yet
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD recovers further to $47.50; not out of the woods yet
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a positive bias during the Asian session on Wednesday and looking to build on the overnight bounce from the vicinity of mid-$45.00s, or the lowest level since September 25.
Silver
Commodities
Technical Analysis
XAGUSD
RBNZ governor Hawkesby: It is crucial that central bank has full operational independence
RBNZ governor Hawkesby: It is crucial that central bank has full operational independence
Remarks by RBNZ governor, Christian Hawkesby, at the Directors and Senior Officers Workshop
Federal Reserve FOMC preview  - Powell seen cutting rates but holding guidance steady
Federal Reserve FOMC preview - Powell seen cutting rates but holding guidance steady
Standard Chartered sees 25bp Fed cut, Powell cautious as data blackout clouds outlook.
BofA sees BoJ hiking rates in January after hawkish October hold
BofA sees BoJ hiking rates in January after hawkish October hold
Bank of America’s outlook points to continued USD/JPY resilience as markets price in a delayed BoJ tightening cycle.
BOJ
JPY
Coming up - Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps, Powell seen offering limited guidance
Coming up - Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps, Powell seen offering limited guidance
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today, with Chair Powell likely to remain cautious and avoid new guidance. Divisions persist inside the FOMC as some officials warn about sticky inflation while others point to rising labour-market risks.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0843 (vs. estimate at 7.0962)
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0843 (vs. estimate at 7.0962)
PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
CNY
CNH
pboc
Australian dollar jumped after very strong CPI data, November RBA rate cut off the table
Australian dollar jumped after very strong CPI data, November RBA rate cut off the table
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock gave the heads up of what to watch
RBA
AUD
Australian Q3 Core inflation (trimmed mean) +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%, RBA forecast 0.6%)
Australian Q3 Core inflation (trimmed mean) +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%, RBA forecast 0.6%)
I've headlined the core rate given comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock earlier this week.
RBA
AUD
Bessent says Japan government gives Bank of Japan policy space, avoid excess FX volatility
Bessent says Japan government gives Bank of Japan policy space, avoid excess FX volatility
For 'FX' ready yen into these comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent
BOJ
JPY
Broker Rebates