Canada CAD

Canada Retail Sales YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.4%
| CAD
Actual:
2%
Forecast: 2.4%
Previous/Revision:
3.1%
Period: Oct

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Nov
What Does It Measure?
The Canada Retail Sales Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the annual change in retail sales across the country, indicating consumer spending trends and economic health. It focuses on the total sales of goods and services by retail establishments and serves as an important indicator of consumption patterns and economic vitality.
Frequency
This report is released monthly, typically providing preliminary estimates that are subject to revisions in subsequent reports, with data usually published around the 21st day of the month following the reporting period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor retail sales figures as they reflect consumer spending habits, which are a critical component of economic growth; stronger-than-expected results can bolster the Canadian dollar (CAD) and equities, while disappointing figures may weaken them. As a timely indicator, it helps in forecasting economic conditions and informs trading strategies involving currencies, stocks, and bonds.
What Is It Derived From?
Retail sales data in Canada is derived from a comprehensive survey of retail establishments, which includes responses from various sectors such as food, clothing, electronics, and more. The calculation employs sales volume figures and incorporates adjustments for price changes to provide a clear picture of consumer activity.
Description
The Canada Retail Sales YoY report compares the total sales figures from the current month to the same month a year prior, which helps eliminate seasonal effects, allowing for a better understanding of long-term trends in consumer behavior. This approach is valuable for identifying structural changes in the economy and projecting future growth or contraction.
Additional Notes
This indicator is classified as a coincident economic measure, reflecting real-time changes in consumer spending that can be compared to other economic reports such as GDP growth and employment figures. It serves as a leading indicator of economic activity, providing insights into future consumer and business confidence.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the actual retail sales YoY is higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. If the actual retail sales YoY is lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2%
2.4%
3.1%
-0.4%
3.4%
3.2%
4.9%
0.2%
4.9%
3.8%
4.2%
1.1%
4%
3.5%
6.5%
0.5%
6.6%
5.3%
4.9%
1.3%
4.9%
4%
5%
0.9%
5%
3.4%
5.6%
1.6%
5.6%
3.8%
4.7%
1.8%
4.7%
3.9%
5.3%
0.8%
4.2%
4%
4.2%
0.2%
3.9%
0.5%
2.1%
3.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
1.6%
1%
-1.4%
1%
1.9%
1.5%
-0.9%
1.8%
2.2%
1.7%
-0.4%
1.9%
0.9%
1%
1%
1.2%
1.1%
0.2%
0.1%
 
 
0.9%
2.5%
2.9%
-1.6%
2.9%
2.5%
1.8%
0.4%
 
 
1.8%
0.8%
1.9%
1%
2.2%
1.2%
2.7%
1%
2.7%
2%
1.7%
0.7%
1.6%
0.2%
2.1%
1.4%
2%
0.5%
-0.6%
1.5%
-0.6%
-0.2%
0.2%
-0.4%
0.5%
-0.3%
2.9%
0.8%
2.9%
2%
2.4%
0.9%
2.4%
3.9%
4.1%
-1.5%
4.3%
4.6%
5.2%
-0.3%
5%
4.3%
5.9%
0.7%
7.3%
3.5%
5.2%
3.8%
5.2%
5.3%
6.2%
-0.1%
6.4%
3.1%
6.9%
3.3%
6.9%
5.1%
6.5%
1.8%
7%
6.5%
8%
0.5%
8%
3.5%
11.1%
4.5%
11%
9%
14.4%
2%
14.1%
10%
9.5%
4.1%
9.2%
3.1%
2.8%
6.1%
2.7%
5.1%
7.7%
-2.4%
7.4%
10.1%
14.5%
-2.7%
12%
9.2%
8.7%
2.8%
8.6%
2.5%
4.4%
6.1%
4.4%
4.9%
5.5%
-0.5%
5.3%
0.8%
5%
4.5%
4.8%
6%
8%
-1.2%
8.4%
6%
5.8%
2.4%
5.3%
5%
6.7%
0.3%
6.2%
14%
24.8%
-7.8%
24.6%
25%
57.2%
-0.4%
56.7%
19%
24.7%
37.7%
23.7%
9%
7%
14.7%
6%
2%
2.4%
4%
1.3%
3.2%
2.8%
-1.9%
3.3%
6.8%
7.6%
-3.5%
7.5%
6.9%
7.3%
0.6%
7.5%
5%
5.6%
2.5%
4.6%
3.2%
3.7%
1.4%
3.5%
4%
2.9%
-0.5%
2.7%
3.5%
3%
-0.8%
3.8%
2%
-16.4%
1.8%
-18.4%
-20%
-31.2%
1.6%
-32.5%
-10%
-8.3%
-22.5%
-8.4%
-4%
3.1%
-4.4%
3%
2.5%
3.7%
0.5%
3.4%
2.2%
2.6%
1.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.2%
-0.1%
1.9%
1%
-0.4%
0.9%
-0.6%
0.8%
1%
-1.4%
1%
1.3%
1.3%
-0.3%
1.1%
0.9%
1.4%
0.2%
1.2%
2.1%
1%
-0.9%
1%
3.5%
0.7%
-2.5%
1%
4.1%
3.8%
-3.1%
3.7%
3.9%
2.9%
-0.2%
2.6%
2%
2.1%
0.6%
1.8%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
1.1%
1.3%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.7%
0.4%
0.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.6%
3.88%
3.6%
-3.28%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
0.1%
3.6%
4%
3.5%
-0.4%
3.7%
3.6%
4%
0.1%
3.8%
3.6%
3.6%
0.2%
3.6%
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
1.6%
3.9%
3.9%
-2.3%
4.1%
3%
3.8%
1.1%
3.5%
4.1%
2.5%
-0.6%
3.6%
5.7%
5.9%
-2.1%
5.8%
6.7%
6.5%
-0.9%
6.5%
6.2%
6.7%
0.3%
6.7%
5.5%
6.5%
1.2%
6.2%
6.3%
7.1%
-0.1%
6.9%
6.6%
7.7%
0.3%
7.8%
6.8%
7.2%
1%
7.3%
6.9%
7.3%
0.4%
7.3%
6.4%
6.9%
0.9%
7%
6.3%
6.8%
0.7%
6.9%
5%
5.1%
1.9%
4.7%
4.3%
6.7%
0.4%
4.5%
4.1%
4.3%
0.4%
4.3%
3.1%
2.7%
1.2%
3%
3.7%
4%
-0.7%
3.8%
2.4%
2.5%
1.4%
2.5%
1.8%
1.9%
0.7%
1.6%
2.2%
2.3%
-0.6%
2.3%
3.1%
2.7%
-0.8%
2.7%
3.7%
3.6%
-1%
3.6%
4.33%
4.6%
-0.73%
4.6%
3.9%
3.2%
0.7%
3.2%
5.5%
5.6%
-2.3%
5.6%
2%
6.4%
3.6%
6.4%
2.5%
2.6%
3.9%
2.6%
2.6%
3.2%
3.2%
1.7%
1.9%
1.5%
1.9%
1.88%
1.2%
0.02%
1.2%
2.1%
2.6%
-0.9%
2.8%
2.16%
1.8%
0.64%
1.8%
1.85%
1.4%
-0.05%
1.4%
2.88%
2.7%
-1.48%
2.7%
1.9%
1.7%
0.8%
1.7%
2.8%
3.1%
-1.1%
3.1%
3.44%
2.5%
-0.34%
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