United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Retail Sales YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.3%
| GBP
Actual:
0.6%
Forecast: 0.9%
Previous/Revision:
0.6%
Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Dec
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom Retail Sales Year-over-Year (YoY) measures the percentage change in the total sales in the retail sector over the preceding year. It focuses primarily on consumer spending as a key indicator of economic health, assessing the performance of retail businesses across various categories, including food, clothing, and online sales.
Frequency
This report is released monthly, typically around the 20th day of each month, and it provides final figures after the initial estimates are revised.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders pay close attention to the Retail Sales YoY as it reflects consumer spending trends, which are critical for economic growth. A robust retail sales figure can lead to appreciation of the British pound and bullish sentiment in equity markets, while weak readings may diminish confidence in economic prospects, negatively impacting currencies and stocks.
What Is It Derived From?
Retail sales data is derived from a survey conducted among a representative sample of retail outlets across the UK, capturing sales figures using various methods including reporting from different sectors and adjustments for inflation. The resulting index reflects the overall sales performance and provides insights into consumer behavior and purchasing trends.
Description
The Retail Sales YoY serves as a critical indicator of economic activity, gauging the changes in consumer spending over a one-year period to eliminate seasonal fluctuations. By analyzing this report, economists and traders can assess the strength of the UK economy as consumption is a primary driver of growth.
Additional Notes
This indicator is generally viewed as a coincident economic measure, often correlating with broader economic trends such as GDP growth and inflation. It also serves as an important reference point for the Bank of England and can influence monetary policy discussions, particularly in relation to consumer confidence and spending habits.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
-0.3%
0.2%
1.5%
1%
-1.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0.8%
0.1%
1.1%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.2%
1.7%
1.8%
-1.1%
-0.1%
-1.3%
1.7%
5%
-3%
5%
4.5%
1.9%
0.5%
2.6%
1.8%
1.8%
0.8%
2.2%
0.5%
0.6%
1.7%
1%
0.6%
2.8%
0.4%
3.6%
4.2%
0%
-0.6%
0.5%
0.8%
2%
-0.3%
2.4%
3.4%
3.2%
-1%
3.9%
3.2%
2.3%
0.7%
2.5%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
1.4%
1.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
0.2%
1.7%
-0.4%
1.3%
-0.9%
-2.3%
2.2%
-2.7%
-0.2%
0.4%
-2.5%
0.8%
0.7%
-0.3%
0.1%
-0.4%
-0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.7%
-1.4%
-2.4%
2.1%
-2.4%
1.1%
0.2%
-3.5%
0.1%
-1.3%
-2.5%
1.4%
-2.7%
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.2%
-1%
-0.1%
-1.3%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-3.1%
-0.2%
-3.2%
-2.1%
-1.6%
-1.1%
-1%
-1.5%
-2.3%
0.5%
-2.1%
-2.6%
-3.4%
0.5%
-3%
-2.8%
-3.9%
-0.2%
-3.1%
-3.1%
-3.3%
-3.5%
-4.7%
-5.2%
1.2%
-5.1%
-5.5%
-6.1%
0.4%
-5.8%
-4.1%
-5.7%
-1.7%
-5.9%
-5.6%
-5.9%
-0.3%
-6.1%
-6.5%
-6.8%
0.4%
-6.9%
-5%
-5.6%
-1.9%
-5.4%
-4.2%
-3.2%
-1.2%
-3.4%
-3.3%
-6.1%
-0.1%
-5.8%
-5.3%
-4.7%
-0.5%
-4.7%
-4.5%
-5.7%
-0.2%
-4.9%
-7.2%
1.3%
2.3%
0.9%
2.8%
7.2%
-1.9%
7%
7.8%
9.4%
-0.8%
9.1%
8.7%
-1.7%
0.4%
-0.9%
3.4%
4.3%
-4.3%
4.7%
4.2%
-1.5%
0.5%
-1.3%
-2%
-0.6%
0.7%
-1.3%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.9%
0%
2.7%
1.9%
-2.7%
2.4%
6%
9.2%
-3.6%
9.7%
9.6%
24.6%
0.1%
24.6%
29%
42.4%
-4.4%
42.4%
36.8%
7.2%
5.6%
7.2%
3.5%
-3.6%
3.7%
-3.7%
-3.5%
-5.9%
-0.2%
-5.9%
-1.3%
3.1%
-4.6%
2.9%
4%
2.1%
-1.1%
2.4%
2.8%
5.8%
-0.4%
5.8%
4.2%
4.6%
1.6%
4.7%
3.7%
2.7%
1%
2.8%
3%
1.4%
-0.2%
1.4%
0%
-1.6%
1.4%
-1.6%
-6.4%
-12.9%
4.8%
-13.1%
-17.1%
-22.7%
4%
-22.6%
-22.2%
-5.8%
-0.4%
-5.8%
-4.7%
0%
-1.1%
0%
0.8%
0.9%
-0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
0.1%
0.9%
2.6%
0.8%
-1.7%
1%
2.1%
3.1%
-1.1%
3.1%
3.7%
3.1%
-0.6%
3.1%
3.2%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.9%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.3%
2.6%
3.8%
0.7%
3.8%
2.6%
2.2%
1.2%
2.3%
2.7%
5.1%
-0.4%
5.2%
4.6%
6.7%
0.6%
6.7%
4.6%
4%
2.1%
4%
3.3%
4.1%
0.7%
4.2%
3.4%
3.1%
0.8%
3%
3.6%
3.4%
-0.6%
3.6%
1.9%
2.4%
1.7%
2.2%
3%
3.3%
-0.8%
3%
3.6%
3.4%
-0.6%
3.3%
2.3%
3.8%
1%
3.5%
3%
2.9%
0.5%
2.9%
3.7%
4.1%
-0.8%
3.9%
2.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.4%
0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.1%
2%
1.5%
-0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
0.2%
1.6%
2.6%
1.5%
-1%
1.4%
3%
1.5%
-1.6%
1.6%
0.3%
0%
1.3%
-0.3%
-0.6%
1.3%
0.3%
1.2%
2.1%
2.3%
-0.9%
2.4%
1.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.9%
2.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.9%
1.7%
4.2%
-0.8%
4%
2.1%
2%
1.9%
1.7%
3.4%
3.7%
-1.7%
3.7%
2.6%
1%
1.1%
1.5%
3.4%
4.1%
-1.9%
4.3%
7.2%
5.7%
-2.9%
5.9%
5.9%
7.2%
7.4%
5.3%
4.2%
2.1%
4.1%
4.8%
6.6%
-0.7%
6.2%
5.4%
6.3%
0.8%
5.9%
4.2%
4.3%
1.7%
4.3%
5%
5.7%
-0.7%
6%
3.9%
5.2%
2.1%
4.3%
2.5%
3%
1.8%
2.7%
4.4%
3.6%
-1.7%
3.8%
3.8%
5.4%
5.2%
3.6%
2.3%
1.6%
2.6%
4.3%
4.5%
-1.7%
5%
3%
4.2%
2%
3.8%
4.2%
6.2%
-0.4%
6.5%
4.8%
3.5%
1.7%
3.7%
3.8%
4.1%
-0.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.2%
-0.2%
4%
4.9%
4.7%
-0.9%
4.6%
4.8%
4.6%
-0.2%
4.7%
3.8%
4%
0.9%
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