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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Retail Price Index MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Office for National Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.4%

Actual:

-0.4%

Forecast: 0%

Previous/Revision:

0.3%

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The Retail Price Index (RPI) in the United Kingdom measures the average change in prices of a basket of retail goods and services over time, focusing specifically on the inflation experienced by consumers. It assesses key areas such as inflation, cost of living, and purchasing power by evaluating price changes across various categories including food, clothing, and housing costs.

Frequency

The RPI is typically released on a monthly basis, with the report including both preliminary and finalized versions of the data, which are published on the third Tuesday of each month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the RPI closely as it serves as a key indicator of inflation, impacting expectations for interest rates and monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England. Changes in the RPI can influence the valuation of the British pound (GBP), as well as the movement of stocks and bonds, making it critical for investment strategies and economic forecasts.

What Is It Derived From?

The RPI is derived from a survey of retailers and statistical data, gathering price information from a variety of goods and services across the UK. The data collection methodology involves calculating price changes through a representative basket of goods, using a weighted average to aggregate price movements.

Description

The RPI is typically reported on a month-over-month (MoM) basis, which allows for the analysis of short-term price changes and identifies immediate trends or shifts in consumer inflation. Although it can provide valuable insights into current economic conditions, the focus on MoM data helps traders gauge rapid inflation shifts that might not be captured in longer-term reporting periods.

Additional Notes

The RPI is considered a lagging indicator of economic performance, as it reflects past price movements rather than predicting future trends. It is often compared with other inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and together, they inform analyses of overall economic health in the UK and trends observed globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the RPI data comes in higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. If the RPI data comes in lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. A Hawkish tone: Signaling higher inflation concerns, is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 17, 2025	-0.4%	0%	0.3%	-0.4%
Nov 19, 2025	0.3%	0.3%	-0.4%
Oct 22, 2025	-0.4%	-0.1%	0.4%	-0.3%
Sep 17, 2025	0.4%	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1%
Aug 20, 2025	0.4%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%
Jul 16, 2025	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 18, 2025	0.2%	0.6%	1.7%	-0.4%
May 21, 2025	1.7%	1.5%	0.3%	0.2%
Apr 16, 2025	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%	-0.1%
Mar 26, 2025	0.6%	0.8%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Feb 19, 2025	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.3%
Jan 15, 2025	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%	-0.4%
Dec 18, 2024	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
Nov 20, 2024	0.5%	0.5%	-0.3%
Oct 16, 2024	-0.3%	0.1%	0.6%	-0.4%
Sep 18, 2024	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2024	0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%	0.4%
Jul 17, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Jun 19, 2024	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	-0.1%
May 22, 2024	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
Apr 17, 2024	0.5%		0.8%
Mar 20, 2024	0.8%	0.7%	-0.3%	0.1%
Feb 14, 2024	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.5%	-0.2%
Jan 17, 2024	0.5%	0.4%	-0.1%	0.1%
Dec 20, 2023	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Nov 15, 2023	-0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	-0.3%
Oct 18, 2023	0.5%	0.5%	0.6%
Sep 20, 2023	0.6%	0.8%	-0.6%	-0.2%
Aug 16, 2023	-0.6%	-0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
Jul 19, 2023	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	-0.1%
Jun 21, 2023	0.7%	0.5%	1.5%	0.2%
May 24, 2023	1.5%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%
Apr 19, 2023	0.7%	0.6%	1.2%	0.1%
Mar 22, 2023	1.2%	0.6%	0%	0.6%
Feb 15, 2023	0%	-0.2%	0.6%	0.2%
Jan 18, 2023	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%	-0.1%
Dec 14, 2022	0.6%	0.5%	2.5%	0.1%
Nov 16, 2022	2.5%	1.8%	0.7%	0.7%
Oct 19, 2022	0.7%	0.5%	0.6%	0.2%
Sep 14, 2022	0.6%	0.7%	0.9%	-0.1%
Aug 17, 2022	0.9%	0.6%	0.9%	0.3%
Jul 20, 2022	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%
Jun 22, 2022	0.7%	0.5%	3.4%	0.2%
May 18, 2022	3.4%	3.4%	1%
Apr 13, 2022	1%	0.9%	0.8%	0.1%
Mar 23, 2022	0.8%	0.8%	0%
Feb 16, 2022	0%	-0.4%	1.1%	0.4%
Jan 19, 2022	1.1%	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%
Dec 15, 2021	0.7%	0.4%	1.1%	0.3%
Nov 17, 2021	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.3%
Oct 20, 2021	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%	0.2%
Sep 15, 2021	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Aug 18, 2021	0.5%	0.3%	0.7%	0.2%
Jul 14, 2021	0.7%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
Jun 16, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	1.4%
May 19, 2021	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.6%
Apr 21, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
Mar 24, 2021	0.5%	0.6%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Feb 17, 2021	-0.3%	-0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Jan 20, 2021	0.6%	0.5%	-0.3%	0.1%
Dec 16, 2020	-0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.5%
Nov 18, 2020	0%	-0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Oct 21, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Sep 16, 2020	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.5%
Aug 19, 2020	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%	0.4%
Jul 15, 2020	0.2%	0.2%	-0.1%
Jun 17, 2020	-0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
May 20, 2020	0%	0%	0.2%
Apr 22, 2020	0.2%	-0.2%	0.5%	0.4%
Mar 25, 2020	0.5%	0.5%	-0.4%
Feb 19, 2020	-0.4%	-0.6%	0.3%	0.2%
Jan 15, 2020	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
Dec 18, 2019	0.2%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%
Nov 13, 2019	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Oct 16, 2019	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.8%	-0.1%
Sep 18, 2019	0.8%	0.7%	0%	0.1%
Aug 14, 2019	0%	0%	0.1%
Jul 17, 2019	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Jun 19, 2019	0.3%	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%
May 22, 2019	1.1%	0.8%	0%	0.3%