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United States USD

United States Nonfarm Productivity QoQ Final

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

0.6%

Actual:

3.3%

Forecast: 2.7%

Previous/Revision:

-1.8%

Period: Q2

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 2.9%

Period: Q3

What Does It Measure?

The Nonfarm Productivity indicator measures the efficiency of labor in the nonfarm business sector, explicitly calculating the output per hour worked. It primarily assesses productivity relative to hours worked and is crucial for understanding trends in labor efficiency and economic growth on a national level.

Frequency

This report is released quarterly, with the final figures typically published around the end of the first month following the quarter's conclusion.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on Nonfarm Productivity because it provides insights into economic health and labor market efficiency, impacting key assets such as the USD and equities. Higher productivity often leads to increased corporate profits, which can boost stock prices, while lower productivity may suggest economic weakness, negatively impacting financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

Nonfarm Productivity is derived from the ratio of real output to the total hours worked in the nonfarm sector, calculated using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and economic analyses. The measure involves national accounts data and a weighted index of output that considers various industries within the nonfarm sector.

Description

The Nonfarm Productivity report provides a vital snapshot of labor efficiency by comparing the output of goods and services against the hours worked in the nonfarm sector, thus highlighting short-term changes in productivity. The preliminary data represents early estimates and may be subject to revisions, while the final data offers a more accurate reflection of productivity trends, released after further analysis.

Additional Notes

Nonfarm Productivity serves as a coincident economic indicator, aligning closely with broader economic performance trends and influencing labor cost dynamics. It is significant for assessing productivity growth in relation to wage trends, which can be a harbinger of inflationary pressures or economic stability.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling lower interest rates or economic support, is usually good for the USD but bad for Stocks due to cheaper borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Sep 04, 2025	3.3%	2.7%	-1.8%	0.6%
Jun 05, 2025	-1.5%	-0.8%	1.7%	-0.7%
Mar 06, 2025	1.5%	1.2%	2.9%	0.3%
Dec 10, 2024	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%
Sep 05, 2024	2.5%	2.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Jun 06, 2024	0.2%	0.2%	3.5%
Mar 07, 2024	3.2%	3.1%	4.7%	0.1%
Dec 06, 2023	5.2%	4.9%	3.6%	0.3%