Euro Area EUR

Euro Area Marginal Lending Rate

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2.4%
Forecast: 2.4%
Previous/Revision:
2.4%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Forecast: 2.4%
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Euro Area Marginal Lending Rate measures the interest rate at which banks can borrow funds from the European Central Bank (ECB) overnight, serving as a key indicator of the cost of short-term borrowing. This rate primarily focuses on monetary policy's impact on liquidity, credit conditions, and overall financial stability in the Eurozone.
Frequency
The rate is reviewed and published on a monthly basis during the ECB's monetary policy meetings, typically announced on the first Thursday of each month.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Marginal Lending Rate as it influences the cost of borrowing for banks, which can subsequently affect lending rates for consumers and businesses, thereby impacting economic growth. Changes to this rate can have significant repercussions for financial markets, affecting currencies like the euro (EUR), equity markets, and bond yields based on anticipated shifts in monetary policy.
What Is It Derived From?
The Marginal Lending Rate is set by the ECB's governing council and is derived from assessments of current economic conditions and targets set for inflation and growth. It reflects the ECB's stance on monetary policy and is adjusted in response to economic indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth forecasts.
Description
The Marginal Lending Rate is part of the ECB's framework for controlling monetary policy, impacting the liquidity available to banks and thus the overall money supply in the Eurozone. It provides insights into the central bank's outlook, where an increase indicates a tightening of monetary policy, while a decrease suggests an accommodative approach to support the economy.
Additional Notes
The Marginal Lending Rate serves as a lagging indicator, reflecting prior economic conditions and providing context for the ECB's past policy decisions and future outlook. Additionally, it is often compared with other rates, such as the Main Refinancing Operations rate and the deposit facility rate, to gauge the overall monetary stance of the ECB.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
If the Marginal Lending Rate is raised unexpectedly, it is usually considered bearish for the euro, while being bullish for stocks as it may indicate economic confidence supporting higher growth, contingent on the context of borrowing costs. Conversely, if the rate is lowered, it would be seen as bullish for the euro, signaling economic support, while potentially bearish for stocks due to expectations of lower interest income for financial institutions.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.65%
2.65%
2.65%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.15%
3.15%
3.15%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
3.9%
3.9%
3.9%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.75%
 
 
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.75%
4.5%
4.5%
0.25%
4.5%
4.5%
4.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4%
4%
4%
3.75%
3.75%
3.75%
3.25%
3.25%
3.25%
2.75%
2.75%
2.75%
2.25%
2.25%
2.25%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
0.75%
0.75%
0.5%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
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