United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Big Surprise:
-0.3%
| GBP
Actual:
3.2%
Forecast: 3.5%
Previous/Revision:
3.6%
Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Dec
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom Inflation Rate YoY measures the percentage change in consumer prices over a year, reflecting the cost of living and overall price stability within the economy. This indicator specifically evaluates key components such as goods, services, housing, and energy costs.
Frequency
It is released monthly and typically includes both preliminary and final figures, with the preliminary estimates being published around the mid-month following the end of the reporting period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders monitor the inflation rate closely, as it influences monetary policy decisions made by the Bank of England, thereby impacting currency valuation (GBP) and stock markets. A higher-than-expected inflation rate can imply tightening monetary policy, leading to bullish movements in currency and bearish sentiments in equities.
What Is It Derived From?
The inflation rate is derived from a comprehensive survey of consumer prices collected from various retailers, service providers, and financial institutions. It employs a weighted index approach based on a basket of goods and services commonly consumed by households, reflecting a diffusion index methodology.
Description
The distinction between preliminary and final reports is significant; the preliminary figure is based on early estimates, subject to subsequent revisions, while the final report provides a more accurate assessment of inflation trends. The month-over-month data is also analyzed to track short-term changes in price levels, although year-over-year comparisons are preferred for understanding long-term inflationary trends.
Additional Notes
The UK Inflation Rate is a leading economic indicator that correlates with consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It plays an essential role in influencing wage negotiations and financial policies, thereby affecting both national and global economic trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the Currency but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.2%
3.5%
3.6%
-0.3%
3.6%
3.6%
3.8%
3.8%
4%
3.8%
-0.2%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
0.1%
3.6%
3.4%
3.4%
0.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.3%
2.6%
0.2%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
-0.1%
2.8%
2.9%
3%
-0.1%
3%
2.8%
2.5%
0.2%
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.6%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
1.7%
0.1%
1.7%
1.9%
2.2%
-0.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.3%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.9%
2%
0.1%
2%
2%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
3.2%
0.2%
3.2%
3.1%
3.4%
0.1%
3.4%
3.5%
4%
-0.1%
4%
4.2%
4%
-0.2%
4%
3.8%
3.9%
0.2%
3.9%
4.4%
4.6%
-0.5%
4.6%
4.8%
6.7%
-0.2%
6.7%
6.6%
6.7%
0.1%
6.7%
7%
6.8%
-0.3%
6.8%
6.8%
7.9%
7.9%
8.2%
8.7%
-0.3%
8.7%
8.4%
8.7%
0.3%
8.7%
8.2%
10.1%
0.5%
10.1%
9.8%
10.4%
0.3%
10.4%
9.9%
10.1%
0.5%
10.1%
10.3%
10.5%
-0.2%
10.5%
10.5%
10.7%
10.7%
10.9%
11.1%
-0.2%
11.1%
10.7%
10.1%
0.4%
10.1%
10%
9.9%
0.1%
9.9%
10.2%
10.1%
-0.3%
10.1%
9.8%
9.4%
0.3%
9.4%
9.3%
9.1%
0.1%
9.1%
9.1%
9%
9%
9.1%
7%
-0.1%
7%
6.7%
6.2%
0.3%
6.2%
5.9%
5.5%
0.3%
5.5%
5.4%
5.4%
0.1%
5.4%
5.2%
5.1%
0.2%
5.1%
4.7%
4.2%
0.4%
4.2%
3.9%
3.1%
0.3%
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
-0.1%
3.2%
2.9%
2%
0.3%
2%
2.3%
2.5%
-0.3%
2.5%
2.2%
2.1%
0.3%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1.5%
1.4%
0.7%
0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
-0.1%
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
-0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
-0.3%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
0%
1%
0.2%
1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.5%
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
1.5%
-0.1%
1.5%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.3%
0.2%
1.3%
1.5%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1.4%
1.5%
0.1%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
-0.1%
1.7%
1.9%
2.1%
-0.2%
2.1%
1.9%
2%
0.2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
2%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.9%
2.1%
-0.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
-0.2%
2.7%
2.4%
2.5%
0.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
2.4%
-0.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
-0.1%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
-0.2%
2.7%
2.8%
3%
-0.1%
3%
2.9%
3%
0.1%
3%
3%
3.1%
3.1%
3%
3%
0.1%
3%
3.1%
3%
-0.1%
3%
3%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.6%
0.1%
2.6%
2.7%
2.6%
-0.1%
2.6%
2.9%
2.9%
-0.3%
2.9%
2.7%
2.7%
0.2%
2.7%
2.6%
2.3%
0.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.3%
2.1%
1.8%
0.2%
1.8%
1.9%
1.6%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
0.1%
0.9%
1.1%
1%
-0.2%
1%
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
-0.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
-0.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0%
0%
-0.1%
0%
0%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0.1%
0%
0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0%
0%
-0.1%
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