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China CNY

China HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

0.2

CNY

Actual:

49.6

Forecast: 49.4

Previous/Revision:

49.2

Period: Jun

What Does It Measure?

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector in China, explicitly focusing on factors such as production output, new orders, inventories, and employment levels within the manufacturing industry. It serves as an important leading indicator of economic activity, with a PMI reading above 50 indicating expansion and below indicating contraction.

Frequency

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash is typically released on a monthly basis, presenting preliminary estimates of the data that reflect early insights into the manufacturing sector's performance.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash as it significantly impacts financial markets by influencing expectations regarding China's economic growth, which in turn affects global commodities, currencies like the CNY, and broader equity markets. A stronger than expected PMI can bolster market sentiment, while disappointing figures may contribute to bearish trends in stocks and currencies.

What Is It Derived From?

The HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash is derived from a survey conducted among purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, which is designed to gauge the prevailing business conditions. It uses a diffusion index methodology, where responses are weighted to reflect changes in various components, ensuring a comprehensive snapshot of the sector's health.

Description

This report provides a preliminary glimpse into the health of China's manufacturing industry by assessing various indicators such as output, new orders, and employment levels. Released at the end of each month, it plays a crucial role in shaping economic forecasts and trading strategies, as the results are closely monitored by investors looking for signs of economic strength or weakness.

Additional Notes

Serving as a leading economic indicator, the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash is essential for understanding broader economic trends in China and its implications globally. It is commonly compared with other manufacturing indicators, such as the official purchasing managers' index (PMI), to gain a more nuanced view of economic conditions.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CNY, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CNY, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Jun 23, 2015		49.6	49.4	49.2	0.2
May 21, 2015		49.1	49.3	48.9	-0.2