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Euro Area EUR

Euro Area HCOB Services PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-2.4

EUR

Actual:

49.2

Forecast: 51.6

Previous/Revision:

51.6

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area HCOB Services PMI Flash measures the performance of the services sector across the Eurozone, specifically assessing business activity, new orders, employment, and prices charged in the services industry. This indicator is a critical barometer of economic health, where values above 50 suggest expansion in the services sector, while values below that mark indicate contraction.

Frequency

The HCOB Services PMI Flash is released monthly as a preliminary estimate, typically published on the first business day of each month, providing an early snapshot of services sector activity for the preceding month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the HCOB Services PMI Flash as it provides timely insights into the economic performance of the Eurozone's services sector, influencing financial markets, particularly the euro, equities, and bonds. A higher-than-expected reading is usually bullish for the euro and equities, while disappointing results can trigger bearish sentiment.

What Is It Derived From?

This PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, comprising a diverse range of industries such as retail, hospitality, and financial services. The index uses a diffusion index calculation, where responses are weighted to reflect the overall economic activity and sentiment, ensuring a robust representation of the sector.

Description

The HCOB Services PMI Flash is a leading economic indicator, providing valuable early insights into the conditions and trends of the services sector in the Eurozone. With preliminary data subject to revisions, this index is instrumental for policymakers and economists in gauging economic momentum and adjusting strategies accordingly.

Additional Notes

The Services PMI is considered a leading indicator of broader economic activity, often correlating with consumer spending and overall economic growth. By assessing only the services sector, it complements other reports like the manufacturing PMI, allowing for a comprehensive view of Eurozone economic dynamics.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

If the actual value is higher than expected, it is considered bullish for the euro and bullish for stocks. If the actual value turns out to be lower than expected, it typically results in a bearish sentiment for the euro and bearish for stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 16, 2025		53.3
Nov 21, 2025		52.8
Oct 24, 2025		51.1
Sep 23, 2025		50.5
Aug 21, 2025		50.8
Jul 24, 2025		50.7
Jun 23, 2025		50
May 22, 2025		50.3
Apr 23, 2025		50.5
Mar 24, 2025		51
Feb 21, 2025		51.5
Jan 24, 2025		51.5
Dec 16, 2024		49.5
Nov 22, 2024	49.2	51.6	51.6	-2.4
Oct 24, 2024	51.2	51.5	51.4	-0.3
Sep 23, 2024	50.5	52.1	52.9	-1.6
Aug 22, 2024	53.3	51.9	51.9	1.4
Jul 24, 2024	51.9	53	52.8	-1.1
Jun 21, 2024	52.6	53.5	53.2	-0.9
May 23, 2024	53.3	53.5	53.3	-0.2
Apr 23, 2024	52.9	51.8	51.5	1.1
Mar 21, 2024	51.1	50.5	50.2	0.6
Feb 22, 2024	50	48.8	48.4	1.2
Jan 24, 2024	48.4	49	48.8	-0.6
Dec 15, 2023	48.1	49	48.7	-0.9
Nov 23, 2023	48.2	48.1	47.8	0.1
Oct 24, 2023	47.8	48.7	48.7	-0.9
Sep 22, 2023	48.4	47.7	47.9	0.7
Aug 23, 2023	48.3	50.5	50.9	-2.2
Jul 24, 2023	51.1	51.5	52	-0.4
Jun 23, 2023	52.4	54.5	55.1	-2.1
May 23, 2023	55.9	55.6	56.2	0.3
Apr 21, 2023	56.6	54.5	55	2.1