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France EUR

France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-1.3

EUR

Actual:

43.2

Forecast: 44.5

Previous/Revision:

44.5

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The France HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the economic health of the manufacturing sector, focusing on production, employment, new orders, and supplier delivery times. This indicator is nationally significant, capturing business activity from purchasing managers across a range of manufacturing industries, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signaling contraction.

Frequency

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, providing a preliminary estimate based on early survey responses.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash as it serves as a timely indicator of economic performance, influencing market perceptions of growth and potential central bank policy actions. Stronger-than-expected results often boost the euro and stocks, while weaker outcomes may lead to declines in these assets due to concerns over economic slowdown.

What Is It Derived From?

This indicator is derived from a survey of approximately 600 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, using a diffusion index where responses reflect varying degrees of growth or contraction in business conditions. The PMI is calculated based on the balance of positive versus negative responses, weighted by the size of the respective companies surveyed.

Description

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash provides insights into the manufacturing sector's performance and is seen as a leading indicator foreshadowing overall economic trends. Preliminary reports often lead to more immediate reactions in the markets, while finalized data reflects more accurate assessments of economic conditions.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash is often compared to other manufacturing indices and is considered a leading indicator, signaling future economic activity in sectors beyond manufacturing. Its ramifications extend beyond France, as shifts in the manufacturing sector can be indicative of broader economic trends within the Eurozone and globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for stocks. The report's tone can indicate economic support or concerns, which is usually good for the EUR but bad for stocks due to potential implications for manufacturing output and investment sentiment.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 16, 2025		48
Nov 21, 2025		49
Oct 24, 2025		48.3
Sep 23, 2025		50.1
Aug 21, 2025		48
Jul 24, 2025		48.5
Jun 23, 2025		50
May 22, 2025		48.9
Apr 23, 2025		48
Mar 24, 2025		46.2
Feb 21, 2025		45.5
Jan 24, 2025		42.3
Dec 16, 2024		43
Nov 22, 2024	43.2	44.5	44.5	-1.3
Oct 24, 2024	44.5	44.9	44.6	-0.4
Sep 23, 2024	44	44.3	43.9	-0.3
Aug 22, 2024	42.1	44.4	44	-2.3
Jul 24, 2024	44.1	45.8	45.4	-1.7
Jun 21, 2024	45.3	46.8	46.4	-1.5
May 23, 2024	46.7	45.8	45.3	0.9
Apr 23, 2024	44.9	44.9	46.2
Mar 21, 2024	45.8	47.5	47.1	-1.7
Feb 22, 2024	46.8	43.5	43.1	3.3
Jan 24, 2024	43.2	42.5	42.1	0.7
Dec 15, 2023	42	43.3	42.9	-1.3
Nov 23, 2023	42.6	43.1	42.8	-0.5
Oct 24, 2023	42.6	44.4	44.2	-1.8
Sep 22, 2023	43.6	46	46	-2.4
Aug 23, 2023	46.4	45	45.1	1.4
Jul 24, 2023	44.5	46	46	-1.5
Jun 23, 2023	45.5	45.4	45.7	0.1
May 23, 2023	46.1	46	45.6	0.1
Apr 21, 2023	45.5	47.8	47.3	-2.3