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Euro Area EUR

Euro Area HCOB Composite PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-1.9

EUR

Actual:

48.1

Forecast: 50

Previous/Revision:

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The Euro Area HCOB Composite PMI Flash measures the overall economic health of the eurozone by providing insights into the combined performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. The primary focus of this indicator is on business activity, new orders, and employment, and it is based on a composite of key indicators such as manufacturing, services, and construction activities.

Frequency

This index is released on a monthly basis, typically as a preliminary estimate on the first business day of the following month, offering early insights before the final figures are published.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the HCOB Composite PMI Flash because it serves as a leading indicator of economic health and can influence financial markets by affecting perceptions of growth and investment prospects in the euro area. A stronger-than-expected reading can boost the euro and equities, while weaker results may lead to declines in these assets.

What Is It Derived From?

The HCOB Composite PMI is derived from surveys of purchasing managers across the manufacturing and services sectors, which capture their views on business conditions such as output, new orders, and employment trends. This diffusion index is calculated by taking the sum of the percentage shares of respondents who report improvement, adjusting for seasonal variations.

Description

The PMI is considered a leading economic indicator, providing insights into the future direction of the economy by assessing changes in business sentiment. While the preliminary data reflects early estimates based on responses, the final report provides a more comprehensive and accurate snapshot of economic conditions, with markets often reacting more strongly to the initial figures due to their timely arrival.

Additional Notes

This indicator is classified as a leading measure, as it tends to reflect business conditions before they materialize in actual economic performance. The HCOB Composite PMI can be compared with other indicators such as the services PMI and manufacturing PMI to gauge overall economic trends and overlaps with reports from different regions that signal similar growth patterns.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 16, 2025		52.7
Nov 21, 2025		52.5
Oct 24, 2025		51
Sep 23, 2025		51.1
Aug 21, 2025		50.7
Jul 24, 2025		50.8
Jun 23, 2025		50.5
May 22, 2025		50.7
Apr 23, 2025		50.3
Mar 24, 2025		50.8
Feb 21, 2025		50.5
Jan 24, 2025		49.7
Dec 16, 2024		48.2
Nov 22, 2024	48.1	50	50	-1.9
Oct 24, 2024	49.7	49.8	49.6	-0.1
Sep 23, 2024	48.9	50.6	51	-1.7
Aug 22, 2024	51.2	50.1	50.2	1.1
Jul 24, 2024	50.1	51.1	50.9	-1
Jun 21, 2024	50.8	52.5	52.2	-1.7
May 23, 2024	52.3	52	51.7	0.3
Apr 23, 2024	51.4	50.8	50.3	0.6
Mar 21, 2024	49.9	49.7	49.2	0.2
Feb 22, 2024	48.9	48.5	47.9	0.4
Jan 24, 2024	47.9	48	47.6	-0.1
Dec 15, 2023	47	48	47.6	-1
Nov 23, 2023	47.1	46.9	46.5	0.2
Oct 24, 2023	46.5	47.4	47.2	-0.9
Sep 22, 2023	47.1	46.5	46.7	0.6
Aug 23, 2023	47	48.5	48.6	-1.5
Jul 24, 2023	48.9	49.7	49.9	-0.8
Jun 23, 2023	50.3	52.5	52.8	-2.2
May 23, 2023	53.3	53.7	54.1	-0.4
Apr 21, 2023	54.4	53.7	53.7	0.7