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Italy EUR

Italy HCOB Composite PMI

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-2.3

Actual:

47.7

Forecast: 50

Previous/Revision:

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) measures the economic health of the private sector in Italy, focusing on the combined output of the manufacturing and services sectors. It assesses key components like production levels, employment trends, and new orders, with a value above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction.

Frequency

The HCOB Composite PMI is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the following month, and presents a final figure after any preliminary estimates.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the HCOB Composite PMI closely since it provides insights into the overall economic activity and business sentiment in Italy, which can influence key assets such as the euro (EUR), Italian stocks, and government bonds. Positive readings tend to boost market confidence, leading to bullish reactions in currencies and equities, while weaker results can trigger bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across the manufacturing and services sectors, with a robust sample size that reflects diverse business sectors. This index is calculated using a diffusion index methodology, where responses about business conditions are weighted to derive a composite score that reflects overall sector performance.

Description

The HCOB Composite PMI serves as a coincident economic indicator, reflecting current economic conditions rather than predicting future activity. The preliminary report is based on early responses and is subject to revision, while the final report offers a more accurate depiction of the economic landscape.

Additional Notes

The HCOB Composite PMI is often compared with other indicators like the Services PMI and the Manufacturing PMI for a more comprehensive view of economic trends. As a coincident indicator, it provides immediate insights into business cycles, highlighting changes that relate to broader economic movements within Italy and in comparison to its European counterparts.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks. Dovish tone: Signaling potential economic support, which can be good for the EUR as it may imply continued demand for Italian goods, but bad for stocks if it reflects underlying weaknesses in the economy.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 03, 2025		53.2
Nov 05, 2025		52.2
Oct 03, 2025		50.7
Sep 03, 2025		51.4
Aug 05, 2025		51.5
Jul 03, 2025		52.2
Jun 04, 2025		52.3
May 06, 2025		51
Apr 03, 2025		51.7
Mar 05, 2025		50
Feb 05, 2025		50
Jan 06, 2025		48
Dec 04, 2024	47.7	50	51	-2.3
Nov 06, 2024	51	49.8	49.7	1.2
Oct 03, 2024	49.7	50.1	50.8	-0.4
Sep 04, 2024	50.8	50.5	50.3	0.3
Aug 05, 2024	50.3	51.1	51.3	-0.8
Jul 03, 2024	51.3	51.8	52.3	-0.5
Jun 05, 2024	52.3	53.4	52.6	-1.1
May 06, 2024	52.6	52.4	53.5	0.2
Apr 04, 2024	53.5	50.7	51.1	2.8
Mar 05, 2024	51.1	51.5	50.7	-0.4
Feb 05, 2024	50.7	49.4	48.6	1.3
Jan 04, 2024	48.6	48.5	48.1	0.1
Dec 05, 2023	48.1	48	47	0.1
Nov 06, 2023	47	48.4	49.2	-1.4
Oct 04, 2023	49.2	48.7	48.2	0.5
Sep 05, 2023	48.2	49.1	48.9	-0.9
Aug 03, 2023	48.9	49.1	49.7	-0.2
Jul 05, 2023	49.7	50.5	52	-0.8
Jun 05, 2023	52	53.1	55.3	-1.1
May 04, 2023	55.3	54.4	55.2	0.9