Euro Area EUR

Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Actual:
2.15%
Forecast: 2.15%
Previous/Revision:
2.15%
Period:

Next Release:

Date:
Period:
What Does It Measure?
The Euro Area ECB Interest Rate Decision measures the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy stance, specifically its decisions regarding the main refinancing rate, which influences borrowing costs, investment, and consumer spending within the eurozone. This indicator primarily focuses on the central bank's approach to managing inflation, economic growth, and overall financial stability in the region.
Frequency
The ECB Interest Rate Decision is released approximately every six weeks during the ECB's Governing Council meetings, with the exact dates varying yearly; it is typically finalized as a final announcement rather than a preliminary estimate.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor this decision due to its significant implications for the euro's value, eurozone equities, and broader bond markets. Changes to the interest rate can signal shifts in monetary policy that affect inflation expectations and economic outlook, prompting immediate reactions in financial markets.
What Is It Derived From?
The decision is derived from comprehensive assessments of economic data, including inflation rates, employment trends, and economic growth forecasts, as well as discussions among ECB members. The voting members evaluate these factors through a consensus approach, often informed by macroeconomic models and indicators.
Description
The ECB Interest Rate Decision reflects the central bank's balance between fostering economic growth and controlling inflation within the eurozone, making it a critical gauge of economic health. This event is inherently forward-looking, as it signals the ECB's expectations for future economic conditions and monetary policy.
Additional Notes
As a leading economic indicator, the ECB Interest Rate Decision often correlates with other economic reports, providing context for market conditions and future monetary policy directions. Its outcomes are especially pertinent in comparison with inflation data and employment figures across the euro area, as changes in interest rates can influence consumer behavior and investment trends.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
The ECB's decision to raise rates would likely indicate a stronger euro: Higher than expected, bullish for the euro, bearish for stocks due to elevated borrowing costs. Conversely, a decision to cut rates or leave them unchanged may suggest economic support, generating a bearish sentiment for the euro but bullish for stocks in anticipation of increased growth stimulation.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.15%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.65%
2.65%
2.65%
2.9%
2.9%
2.9%
3.15%
3.15%
3.15%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
3.65%
3.65%
3.65%
4.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.5%
4.25%
4.25%
0.25%
4.25%
4.25%
4%
4%
4%
3.75%
3.75%
3.75%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3%
3%
3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
2%
2%
2%
1.25%
1.25%
1.25%
0.5%
0.5%
0.25%
0%
0.25%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.05%
0.05%
-0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
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