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United States USD

United States Core PPI MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

High

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

-0.3%

USD

Actual:

-0.1%

Forecast: 0.2%

Previous/Revision:

0.1%

Period: Aug

What Does It Measure?

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, excluding food and energy prices to isolate core inflation trends. This indicator primarily assesses inflation pressure at the wholesale level, focusing on changes in prices that producers charge for goods and services, which can signal broader economic conditions.

Frequency

The Core PPI is released monthly, typically on the second or third week of each month, and represents final figures, rather than preliminary estimates or revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the Core PPI because it serves as a leading indicator for inflation, affecting expectations about monetary policy; higher-than-expected readings are considered bullish for the US dollar and equities, while weaker results may lead to bearish sentiment in these markets. Its timely release helps analysts and policymakers refine economic forecasts and decision-making strategies.

What Is It Derived From?

The Core PPI is derived from a monthly survey of businesses that report prices for a representative sample of goods and services, capturing data across various industries, with a particular emphasis on manufacturing and service sectors. This calculation utilizes a diffusion index method to analyze price changes, ensuring that results accurately reflect price movements across the economy.

Description

The Core PPI compares the prices of goods produced domestically over successive months, specifically excluding volatile categories like food and energy to present a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. This metric is critical for analyzing short-term inflationary pressures and guiding monetary policy decisions.

Additional Notes

As a leading economic measure, the Core PPI is often compared to the overall PPI to distinguish between core inflation trends and commodity price volatility. It is aligned with broader economic trends and can influence the direction of other indicators like consumer prices and wage growth.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for USD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Sep 12, 2018	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Aug 09, 2018	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jul 11, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Jun 13, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
May 09, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Apr 10, 2018	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Mar 14, 2018	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Feb 15, 2018	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.2%
Jan 11, 2018	-0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.3%
Dec 12, 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Nov 14, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
Oct 12, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
Sep 13, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.1%
Aug 10, 2017	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Jul 13, 2017	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.1%
Jun 13, 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
May 11, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0%	0.2%
Apr 13, 2017	0%	0.2%	0.3%	-0.2%
Mar 14, 2017	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Feb 14, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Jan 13, 2017	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Dec 14, 2016	0.4%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.2%
Nov 16, 2016	-0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	-0.4%
Oct 14, 2016	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 15, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.3%
Aug 12, 2016	-0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	-0.5%
Jul 14, 2016	0.4%	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
Jun 15, 2016	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
May 13, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Apr 13, 2016	-0.1%	0.1%	0%	-0.2%
Mar 15, 2016	0%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.1%
Feb 17, 2016	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Jan 15, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Dec 11, 2015	0.3%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%
Nov 13, 2015	-0.3%	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.4%
Oct 14, 2015	-0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	-0.4%
Sep 11, 2015	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 14, 2015	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%
Jul 15, 2015	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Jun 12, 2015	0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%
May 14, 2015	-0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	-0.3%