United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate YoY

Impact:
High

Latest Release:

Date:
Surprise:
-0.2%
| GBP
Actual:
3.2%
Forecast: 3.4%
Previous/Revision:
3.4%
Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:
Period: Dec
What Does It Measure?
The United Kingdom Core Inflation Rate measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It primarily focuses on assessing underlying inflation trends, indicating price stability and potential adjustments in monetary policy.
Frequency
This economic indicator is released monthly, with the data reported in a preliminary estimate typically published around the middle of the month following the observation period.
Why Do Traders Care?
Traders closely monitor the Core Inflation Rate because it is crucial for understanding inflationary pressures and the state of the economy, impacting the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions. Higher core inflation readings can bolster the British pound and equities, while lower-than-expected figures may lead to bearish sentiment towards these assets.
What Is It Derived From?
The Core Inflation Rate is derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which encompasses a range of consumer goods and services, collected through surveys that gauge pricing trends from retailers, service providers, and other relevant sectors. The calculation employs a weighted average to reflect spending patterns and excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, allowing a clearer view of underlying inflation.
Description
The Core Inflation Rate is pivotal for assessing the longer-term inflation trajectory, as it excludes temporary price fluctuations associated with food and energy. It is reported as a Year-over-Year (YoY) percentage change, which compares the current month's index value to the index value from the same month in the previous year, effectively filtering seasonal adjustments and revealing more persistent inflationary trends.
Additional Notes
This indicator serves as a leading measure of inflation, providing insights into underlying economic conditions and influencing policymakers' approaches. It is often compared to general inflation measures alongside other economic indicators, and its trends can correlate with movements in global commodities and interest rates.
Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks
Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for GBP, Bearish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher interest rates or inflation concerns is usually good for the GBP but bad for Stocks due to higher borrowing costs.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.
Date Time Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
3.2%
3.4%
3.4%
-0.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.7%
3.6%
-0.2%
3.6%
3.6%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.7%
0.1%
3.7%
3.5%
3.5%
0.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
-0.1%
3.8%
3.6%
3.4%
0.2%
3.4%
3.4%
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
3.7%
-0.1%
3.7%
3.7%
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
3.5%
-0.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.3%
-0.1%
3.3%
3.1%
3.2%
0.2%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
-0.2%
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
0.1%
3.3%
3.4%
3.5%
-0.1%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.5%
3.9%
3.9%
3.6%
4.2%
0.3%
4.2%
4.1%
4.5%
0.1%
4.5%
4.6%
5.1%
-0.1%
5.1%
5.2%
5.1%
-0.1%
5.1%
4.9%
5.1%
0.2%
5.1%
5.6%
5.7%
-0.5%
5.7%
5.8%
6.1%
-0.1%
6.1%
6%
6.2%
0.1%
6.2%
6.8%
6.9%
-0.6%
6.9%
6.8%
6.9%
0.1%
6.9%
7.1%
7.1%
-0.2%
7.1%
6.8%
6.8%
0.3%
6.8%
6.2%
6.2%
0.6%
6.2%
6%
6.2%
0.2%
6.2%
5.7%
5.8%
0.5%
5.8%
6.2%
6.3%
-0.4%
6.3%
6.2%
6.3%
0.1%
6.3%
6.5%
6.5%
-0.2%
6.5%
6.4%
6.5%
0.1%
6.5%
6.4%
6.3%
0.1%
6.3%
6.3%
6.2%
6.2%
5.9%
5.8%
0.3%
5.8%
5.8%
5.9%
5.9%
6%
6.2%
-0.1%
6.2%
6.2%
5.7%
5.7%
5.4%
5.2%
0.3%
5.2%
5%
4.4%
0.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.2%
0.1%
4.2%
3.9%
4%
0.3%
4%
3.7%
3.4%
0.3%
3.4%
3.1%
2.9%
0.3%
2.9%
3%
3.1%
-0.1%
3.1%
2.9%
1.8%
0.2%
1.8%
2.2%
2.3%
-0.4%
2.3%
2%
2%
0.3%
2%
1.5%
1.3%
0.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
-0.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
0.1%
1.1%
1.4%
1.5%
-0.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
0.2%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
1.8%
0.3%
1.8%
1.3%
1.4%
0.5%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
-0.1%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.6%
0.2%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
0.1%
1.4%
1.7%
1.7%
-0.3%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.9%
-0.3%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
-0.1%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
-0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
0.1%
1.8%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2%
2.1%
-0.1%
2.1%
1.8%
1.9%
0.3%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.2%
2.1%
-0.3%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
2.2%
2.3%
-0.1%
2.3%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
0.1%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.7%
-0.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.4%
0.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.4%
-0.1%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
-0.2%
2.6%
2.4%
2.4%
0.2%
2.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.2%
1.8%
1.9%
2%
-0.1%
2%
1.8%
1.6%
0.2%
1.6%
1.8%
1.6%
-0.2%
1.6%
1.4%
1.4%
0.2%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.5%
-0.3%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
-0.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
0.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
-0.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
-0.2%
1.5%
1.3%
1.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
-0.1%
1.4%
1.2%
1.2%
0.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1%
1%
0.1%
1%
1.1%
1%
-0.1%
1%
1.2%
1.2%
-0.2%
1.2%
0.83%
0.8%
0.37%
0.8%
0.8%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.1%
0.8%
1%
1%
-0.2%
Broker Rebates