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Canada CAD

Canada CFIB Business Barometer

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: CFIB - Canadian Federation of Independent Business

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

5.9

Actual:

59.9

Forecast: 54

Previous/Revision:

55.8

Period: Dec

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The Canada CFIB Business Barometer measures the overall sentiment and confidence levels of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Canada, focusing on their expectations for business performance, employment, and investment in the near future. Key indicators assessed include sales expectations, hiring plans, and economic outlook, with readings above 50 indicating positive sentiment and below indicating negative sentiment on a national level.

Frequency

The CFIB Business Barometer is released monthly, typically on the first Tuesday of each month, and is considered a preliminary estimate that may be subject to revision in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders focus on the CFIB Business Barometer as it provides insights into the economic health and growth prospects of Canada’s SME sector, which is crucial for overall economic activity. Higher-than-expected results can be bullish for the Canadian dollar (CAD) and equities, while disappointing results may lead to bearish sentiments in markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The Barometer is derived from surveys conducted with thousands of business owners across various industries, capturing their perspectives on expected sales, investment plans, and hiring intentions. The calculation involves a diffusion index methodology where responses are weighted to reflect the size and type of businesses to generate a composite score.

Description

Preliminary reports provide an early indication of business sentiment based on current information and are often released before final data, which reflects a more complete dataset after additional input and revisions have been collected. The reporting primarily uses a month-over-month comparison to gauge recent shifting sentiments, aiding traders in identifying immediate economic trends.

Additional Notes

The CFIB Business Barometer acts as a leading indicator of economic activity, often reflecting trends prior to broader economic reports. It serves as a critical measure for assessing the health of the Canadian economy, allowing comparisons with other economic indicators and reports to understand regional variances.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 18, 2025	59.9	54	55.8	5.9
Nov 20, 2025	55.5	48	46.7	7.5
Oct 16, 2025	46.3	50.7	50.2	-4.4
Sep 18, 2025	50.2	45	48.3	5.2
Aug 21, 2025	47.8	50.8	50.9	-3
Jul 17, 2025	50.9	47.5	47.5	3.4
Jun 19, 2025	47.3	43	40	4.3
May 22, 2025	40	34.6	34.8	5.4
Apr 17, 2025	34.8		25.5
Mar 24, 2025	25	49	49.8	-24
Feb 28, 2025	49.5	54	54.5	-4.5
Jan 30, 2025	54.6	56.2	56.4	-1.6
Dec 30, 2024	56.4	55	59.8	1.4
Nov 29, 2024	59.7	56.3	55.8	3.4
Oct 31, 2024	55.8	54.3	55.1	1.5
Sep 27, 2024	55	55	56.9
Aug 30, 2024	56.8	55.3	55.5	1.5
Jul 26, 2024	55.4	56.7	56	-1.3
Jun 28, 2024	56.3	56	56.6	0.3
May 30, 2024	56.4	49	47.6	7.4
Apr 26, 2024	47.5	52	52.9	-4.5
Mar 28, 2024	52.7	52	55.1	0.7
Feb 29, 2024	54.9	49.4	48.8	5.5
Jan 25, 2024	49	48	47.04	1
Dec 28, 2023	47.04	45	45.58	2.04
Nov 30, 2023	45.58	47	47.23	-1.42
Oct 26, 2023	47.2	48	48.7	-0.8
Sep 28, 2023	48.7	54	54.7	-5.3
Aug 31, 2023	54.8	53.8	54.4	1
Jul 27, 2023	54.2		54
Jun 29, 2023	54.1	50	56.2	4.1
May 25, 2023	56.4	54	55.7	2.4
Apr 27, 2023	55.7	53	55.3	2.7
Mar 30, 2023	55.3	49	51.8	6.3
Feb 23, 2023	51.7	49	51.2	2.7
Jan 26, 2023	51.4	49	50.9	2.4
Dec 29, 2022	50.9	49	50	1.9
Nov 24, 2022	50	51	51.2	-1
Oct 27, 2022	51.4	52	52.4	-0.6
Sep 29, 2022	52.5	52	53.5	0.5
Aug 25, 2022	53.5	51	52.67	2.5
Jul 29, 2022	52.7	58	59.36	-5.3
Jun 30, 2022	59.36	60	61.9	-0.64
May 26, 2022	61.6	64.2	64.9	-2.6
Apr 28, 2022	64.9	64	65.2	0.9
Mar 31, 2022	65.1	58	62.51	7.1
Feb 25, 2022	62.51	55	54.69	7.51
Jan 27, 2022	54.3	62.5	62.56	-8.2
Dec 30, 2021	62.6	62.5	62.24	0.1
Nov 25, 2021	62.24	60	60.46	2.24
Oct 29, 2021	60.46	57	57.83	3.46