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United Kingdom GBP

United Kingdom CBI Business Optimism Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Confederation of British Industry

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-2

GBP

Actual:

-31

Forecast: -29

Previous/Revision:

-27

Period: Q4

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Q1

What Does It Measure?

The CBI Business Optimism Index measures the sentiment and confidence of British businesses regarding their economic outlook over the next 12 months. This indicator primarily focuses on key areas such as production expectations, investment plans, and employment, serving as an important gauge of future economic activity at the national level.

Frequency

The CBI Business Optimism Index is released quarterly, with the results typically published in the first week of the month following the end of each quarter, providing a preliminary estimate.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the CBI Business Optimism Index because it reflects the economic sentiment of the business sector, which can influence market expectations and investment decisions. Positive readings may bolster the British Pound (GBP) and equities, while negative results could lead to bearish sentiments in currencies and stocks linked to the UK economy.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is calculated based on a survey conducted among member companies of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), focusing on over 500 firms from diverse sectors. The methodology involves collecting qualitative data regarding their expectations for business conditions, which are then aggregated to derive the index value.

Description

The CBI Business Optimism Index is a crucial figure that helps analysts gauge the overall health of the UK economy. Preliminary reports provide early insights into business sentiment, while final versions, released later, offer a more accurate measure, demonstrating how initial estimates can influence immediate market reactions.

Additional Notes

This index is considered a leading economic indicator as it provides insights into future business activity and overall economic performance. It correlates with broader economic trends in the UK and is often compared to similar sentiment indexes globally, providing context for traders regarding regional economic pressures.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for GBP, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Oct 23, 2025	-31	-29	-27	-2
Jul 24, 2025	-27	-31	-33	4
Apr 24, 2025	-33	-40	-47	7
Jan 23, 2025	-47	-30	-24	-17
Oct 24, 2024	-24	-3	-9	-21
Jul 25, 2024	-9	15	9	-24
Apr 24, 2024	9	2	-3	7
Jan 24, 2024	-3	-2	-15	-1
Oct 24, 2023	-15	7	6	-22
Jul 25, 2023	6	5	-2	1
Apr 25, 2023	-2	-15	-5	13
Jan 24, 2023	-5	-60	-48	55
Oct 25, 2022	-48	-40	-21	-8
Jul 25, 2022	-21	-45	-34	24
Apr 25, 2022	-34	-23	-9	-11
Jan 25, 2022	-9	5	2	-14
Oct 21, 2021	2	15	27	-13
Jul 22, 2021	27	45	38	-18
Apr 22, 2021	38	-10	-22	48
Jan 21, 2021	-22	-8	0	-14
Oct 22, 2020	0	-14	-1	14
Jul 23, 2020	-1	-38	-87	37
Apr 23, 2020	-87	-60	23	-27
Jan 22, 2020	23	-28	-44	51
Oct 22, 2019	-44	-38	-32	-6
Jul 23, 2019	-32	-14	-13	-18
Apr 26, 2019	-13	-12	-23	-1
Jan 23, 2019	-23	-26	-16	3
Oct 23, 2018	-16	-8	-3	-8
Jul 24, 2018	-3	5	-4	-8
Apr 24, 2018	-4	6	13	-10
Jan 23, 2018	13	-7	-11	20
Oct 23, 2017	-11	4	5	-15
Jul 25, 2017	5	6	1	-1
Apr 24, 2017	1	10	15	-9
Jan 25, 2017	15	-10	-8	25
Oct 24, 2016	-8	-21	-47	13
Jul 27, 2016	-47	-11	-5	-36
Apr 27, 2016	-5	-9	-4	4
Jan 25, 2016	-4	-15	-12	11
Oct 26, 2015	-12	2	8	-14
Jul 27, 2015	8	3	3	5