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United States USD

United States CB Leading Index MoM

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

-0.3%

Forecast: -0.3%

Previous/Revision:

-0.3%

Period: Sep

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: -0.2%

Period: Oct

What Does It Measure?

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States measures the economic signals that are likely to precede changes in the business cycle, specifically aimed at forecasting future economic activity. It includes components assessing new orders, consumer expectations, employment, and stock prices, thereby providing insights into potential expansions or contractions in the economy.

Frequency

The CB Leading Index is released monthly, generally on the last Thursday of each month, and the figures are considered preliminary data, subject to revisions in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the CB Leading Index as it serves as a predictive tool for future economic performance, which can significantly impact financial markets. An increase or a higher-than-expected value typically supports bullish sentiment in currencies and equities, while disappointing results can lead to bearish market behaviors.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a composite of ten leading indicators that are weighted according to their historical correlation with the economic cycle. These include metrics collected through surveys and real economic data, such as the Purchasing Managers' Index, housing permits, and average weekly hours in manufacturing.

Description

The CB Leading Index is crucial as it acts as a leading economic indicator, providing insights into future economic performance by compiling data that typically shift before the overall economy. The preliminary report is significant for traders since it highlights timely economic trends, while the final index, released later, offers a more accurate and refined reflection of the leading indicators.

Additional Notes

This indicator is often compared to other leading indicators, such as the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CILI) and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which collectively contribute to forecasting economic conditions. The CB Leading Index is regarded as a leading measure because its components tend to change before the economic activity begins to shift, thus providing early signals of turning points in the economy.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 09, 2025	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Sep 18, 2025	-0.5%	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.3%
Aug 21, 2025	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.3%
Jul 21, 2025	-0.3%	-0.2%	0%	-0.1%
Jun 20, 2025	-0.1%	-0.1%	-1.4%
May 19, 2025	-1%	-0.9%	-0.8%	-0.1%
Apr 21, 2025	-0.7%	-0.5%	0.2%	-0.2%
Mar 20, 2025	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Feb 20, 2025	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jan 22, 2025	-0.1%	0%	0.4%	-0.1%
Dec 19, 2024	0.3%	-0.1%	-0.4%	0.4%
Nov 21, 2024	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.1%
Oct 21, 2024	-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Sep 19, 2024	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.6%	0.1%
Aug 19, 2024	-0.6%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Jul 18, 2024	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%	0.1%
Jun 21, 2024	-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.6%	-0.2%
May 17, 2024	-0.6%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Apr 18, 2024	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
Mar 21, 2024	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.4%	0.3%
Feb 20, 2024	-0.4%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Jan 22, 2024	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.2%
Dec 21, 2023	-0.5%	-0.4%	-1%	-0.1%
Nov 20, 2023	-0.8%	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.1%
Oct 19, 2023	-0.7%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.3%
Sep 21, 2023	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.4%	0.1%
Aug 17, 2023	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.7%
Jul 20, 2023	-0.7%	-0.6%	-0.6%	-0.1%
Jun 22, 2023	-0.7%	-0.7%	-0.6%
May 18, 2023	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1.2%
Apr 20, 2023	-1.2%	-0.6%	-0.5%	-0.6%
Mar 17, 2023	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Feb 17, 2023	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.8%
Jan 23, 2023	-0.8%	-0.7%	-1.1%	-0.1%
Dec 22, 2022	-1%	-0.4%	-0.9%	-0.6%
Nov 18, 2022	-0.8%	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.4%
Oct 20, 2022	-0.4%	-0.3%	0%	-0.1%
Sep 22, 2022	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.5%	-0.2%
Aug 18, 2022	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.8%	0.1%
Jul 21, 2022	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.6%	-0.3%
Jun 17, 2022	-0.4%	-0.4%	-0.4%
May 19, 2022	-0.3%	0%	0.3%	-0.3%
Apr 21, 2022	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%
Mar 18, 2022	0.3%	0.3%	-0.5%
Feb 18, 2022	-0.3%	0.2%	0.7%	-0.5%
Jan 21, 2022	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Dec 20, 2021	1.1%	0.9%	0.9%	0.2%
Nov 18, 2021	0.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 21, 2021	0.2%	0.4%	0.8%	-0.2%
Sep 23, 2021	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Aug 19, 2021	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.1%
Jul 22, 2021	0.7%	0.9%	1.2%	-0.2%
Jun 17, 2021	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%
May 20, 2021	1.6%	1.4%	1.3%	0.2%
Apr 22, 2021	1.3%	1%	-0.1%	0.3%
Mar 18, 2021	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	-0.1%
Feb 22, 2021	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Jan 28, 2021	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%
Dec 18, 2020	0.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Nov 19, 2020	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
Oct 22, 2020	0.7%	0.7%	1.4%
Sep 18, 2020	1.2%	1.3%	2%	-0.1%
Aug 20, 2020	1.4%	1.1%	3%	0.3%
Jul 23, 2020	2%	2.1%	3.2%	-0.1%
Jun 18, 2020	2.8%	2.3%	-6.1%	0.5%
May 21, 2020	-4.4%	-5.5%	-7.4%	1.1%
Apr 17, 2020	-6.7%	-7%	-0.2%	0.3%
Mar 19, 2020	0.1%	0.1%	0.7%
Feb 20, 2020	0.8%	0.4%	-0.3%	0.4%
Jan 23, 2020	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%
Dec 19, 2019	0%	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Nov 21, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Oct 18, 2019	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Sep 19, 2019	0%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.1%
Aug 22, 2019	0.5%	0.2%	-0.1%	0.3%
Jul 18, 2019	-0.3%	0.1%	0%	-0.4%
Jun 20, 2019	0%	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
May 17, 2019	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
Apr 18, 2019	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%
Mar 21, 2019	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
Feb 21, 2019	-0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jan 24, 2019	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.2%
Dec 20, 2018	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Nov 21, 2018	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
Oct 18, 2018	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Sep 20, 2018	0.4%	0.5%	0.6%	-0.1%
Aug 17, 2018	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%	0.2%
Jul 19, 2018	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 21, 2018	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	-0.2%
May 17, 2018	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
Apr 19, 2018	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%
Mar 22, 2018	0.6%	0.5%	0.8%	0.1%
Feb 22, 2018	1%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%
Jan 25, 2018	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Dec 21, 2017	0.4%	0.4%	1.2%
Nov 20, 2017	1.2%	0.6%	-0.2%	0.6%
Oct 19, 2017	-0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	-0.3%
Sep 21, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%
Aug 17, 2017	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%
Jul 20, 2017	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Jun 22, 2017	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	-0.1%
May 18, 2017	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
Apr 20, 2017	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%
Mar 17, 2017	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Feb 17, 2017	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Jan 26, 2017	0.5%	0.5%	0.1%
Dec 22, 2016	0%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.2%
Nov 18, 2016	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 20, 2016	0.2%	0.2%	-0.2%
Sep 22, 2016	-0.2%	0.1%	0.5%	-0.3%
Aug 18, 2016	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Jul 21, 2016	0.3%	0.2%	-0.2%	0.1%
Jun 23, 2016	-0.2%	0.1%	0.6%	-0.3%
May 19, 2016	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.2%
Apr 21, 2016	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.2%
Mar 17, 2016	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Feb 18, 2016	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Jan 22, 2016	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.5%	-0.1%
Dec 17, 2015	0.4%	0.1%	0.6%	0.3%
Nov 19, 2015	0.6%	0.5%	-0.2%	0.1%
Oct 22, 2015	-0.2%	0%	0.1%	-0.2%
Sep 18, 2015	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Aug 20, 2015	-0.2%	0.2%	0.6%	-0.4%
Jul 23, 2015	0.6%	0.2%	0.7%	0.4%
Jun 18, 2015	0.7%	0.4%	0.7%	0.3%
May 21, 2015	0.7%	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%