Feedback / Help improve this page

Australia AUD

Australia Ai Group Industry Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Australian Industry Group

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

2.5

AUD

Actual:

-12.5

Forecast: -15

Previous/Revision:

-11.2

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: -14

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The Ai Group Industry Index measures the performance and outlook of Australia's manufacturing sector, focusing on key areas such as production, employment, and new orders. It is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across various industries and provides insights on economic activity specific to the Australian manufacturing landscape.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically on the first Wednesday of each month, and consists of preliminary estimates that may be revised in subsequent releases.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders monitor the Ai Group Industry Index closely because it reflects manufacturing sector health, which can influence the Australian dollar (AUD) and stock market performance. Higher-than-expected values often signal economic expansion, potentially leading to bullish sentiment in both the currency and equities markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from surveys conducted among purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, capturing their responses regarding production levels, new orders, and employment. The data collection employs diffusion indices to assess expansionary or contractionary trends based on the responses received.

Description

The Ai Group Industry Index is reported as a diffusion index, where a value above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity, while below 50 signifies contraction. This measure is particularly useful for traders looking to identify trends in Australia's economic performance, especially as it relates to production capacity and employment levels within the manufacturing sector.

Additional Notes

The Ai Group Industry Index is considered a leading economic indicator that helps forecast broader economic trends. In comparison to other reports such as the PMI and GDP reports, it offers more immediate insights into changing conditions in the manufacturing sector.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for AUD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for AUD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 02, 2025	-12.5	-15	-11.2	2.5
Nov 04, 2025	-11.2	-18	-16	6.8
Sep 30, 2025	-16	-15	-13.9	-1
Sep 02, 2025	-13.9	-2.6	-3.2	-11.3
Aug 05, 2025	-3.2	-8.9	-11.9	5.7
Jul 01, 2025	-11.9	-3	-12.3	-8.9
Jun 03, 2025	-12.3	-10	-15	-2.3
May 06, 2025	-15	-26	-22.2	11
Apr 01, 2025	-22.2	-17.8	-17.6	-4.4
Mar 04, 2025	-17.6	-15	-17.4	-2.6
Feb 04, 2025	-17.4	-15	-10.8	-2.4
Dec 03, 2024	-10.8	-21.3	-28.8	10.5
Nov 05, 2024	-28.8	-13	-18.6	-15.8
Oct 01, 2024	-18.6	-10	-23.5	-8.6
Sep 03, 2024	-23.5	-19.2	-20.7	-4.3
Aug 06, 2024	-20.7	-22	-25.6	1.3
Jul 02, 2024	-25.6	-25	-40.3	-0.6
Jun 04, 2024	-40.3	-10	-8.9	-30.3
Apr 30, 2024	-8.9	-4	-5.3	-4.9
Apr 02, 2024	-5.3	-17	-14.9	11.7
Mar 05, 2024	-14.9	-22	-27.3	7.1
Feb 06, 2024	-27.3	-26	-22.4	-1.3
Dec 05, 2023	-22.4	-8	-9.9	-14.4
Oct 31, 2023	-9.9	-6	-3.5	-3.9
Oct 03, 2023	-3.5	-13	-11.6	9.5
Sep 06, 2023	-11.6	-16	-14.7	4.4
Aug 01, 2023	-14.7	-16	-11.9	1.3
Jul 04, 2023	-11.9	-14	-10.9	2.1
Jun 06, 2023	-10.9	-26	-20.1	15.1
May 02, 2023	20.1	-7	-6.1	27.1
Apr 04, 2023	-6.1	2	-1.7	-8.1
Feb 28, 2023	-1.8	-10	-11.6	8.2
Feb 07, 2023	-11.6		-1.1