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Canada CAD

Canada Adp Employment Change

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Latest Release:

Date:

Big Surprise:

90.8K

CAD

Actual:

40.8K

Forecast: -50K

Previous/Revision:

-383.5K

Period: Nov

What Does It Measure?

The Canada ADP Employment Change measures the monthly change in employment levels within the private sector. This indicator primarily focuses on assessing job growth or decline, which serves as a vital signal of economic health and labor market dynamics at the national level.

Frequency

This report is released on a monthly basis, typically around the first week of each month, and provides preliminary estimates of employment changes from the previous month.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change as it serves as a barometer for the job market, impacting expectations for economic growth and monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected employment growth tends to be bullish for the Canadian dollar and equities, while weaker figures may suggest economic challenges, potentially leading to bearish sentiments.

What Is It Derived From?

The ADP Employment Change is derived from payroll data collected from approximately 400,000 companies, spanning various industries in Canada. The calculation employs a model based on historical employment trends to produce a monthly estimate of job changes, reflecting the hiring and firing activities of these businesses.

Description

The ADP Employment Change report provides insights into the employment landscape in Canada, reflecting the trends in job creation and eliminating seasonality by using year-over-year comparisons. Market participants view this indicator as a leading gauge of economic activity, as robust job growth typically signals increased consumer spending and overall economic expansion.

Additional Notes

As a coincident economic measure, the ADP Employment Change shares correlations with other labor market indicators, such as the official unemployment rate and the Statistics Canada employment report. This employment change figure often influences broader economic assessments, with regional employment trends providing context for national economic performance.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for CAD, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for CAD, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Time	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 17, 2020		40.8K	-50K	-383.5K	90.8K
Dec 19, 2019		30.9K	66.6K	2.9K	-35.7K