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Japan JPY

Japan 10-Year Index-Linked JGB Auction

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Latest Release:

Date:

Actual:

0.113%

Forecast:

Previous/Revision:

0.078%

Period:

What Does It Measure?

The Japan 10-Year Index-Linked JGB Auction measures the government’s issuance of inflation-linked bonds, specifically focusing on the demand and yield for these securities. This auction assesses investors' expectations of future inflation and their appetite for long-term fixed income assets, providing insights into the national economy's health and inflation outlook.

Frequency

The auction occurs on a regular basis, typically conducted quarterly, with the results released shortly after the auction concludes, providing very timely figures that give insights into market sentiment.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to this auction as the results can significantly influence the Japanese yen's value, Japanese government bonds, and broader equity markets. The auction's yields and coverage ratios reflect investor confidence and inflation expectations, impacting both domestic and international financial asset valuations.

What Is It Derived From?

The auction results are derived from bids submitted by institutional and retail investors, where the bidding process is competitive, and the final yields are determined based on the lowest accepted bids. The calculation method typically reflects the principle of price discovery through supply and demand dynamics, with data aggregation from broker reports and market placements.

Description

Preliminary reports from the auction indicate initial interest and demand levels, which can indicate market sentiment, while final reports provide more accurate and definitive yield information. The auction results typically reflect not only immediate investor sentiment but also longer-term economic forecasts and inflation expectations.

Additional Notes

This auction serves as a leading economic measure since it provides early insights into future inflation trends and shifts in investor behavior. Additionally, the results can be compared to other bond auctions and economic indicators to contextualize Japan's economic standing relative to global trends.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected demand in the auction: Bullish for the Yen, Bullish for Stocks. A hawkish tone: Signaling higher inflation concerns or interest rates, is usually bad for the Yen but good for Stocks due to increased demand for risk assets.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Previous
Nov 17, 2025	0.113%	0.078%
Aug 15, 2025	0.078%	0%
May 22, 2025	0%	-0.269%
Feb 12, 2025	-0.269%	-0.362%
Nov 11, 2024	-0.362%	-0.426%
Aug 16, 2024	-0.426%	-0.545%
May 20, 2024	-0.545%	-0.468%