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Euro Area EUR

Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Source: S&P Global

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-0.8

EUR

Actual:

45.2

Forecast: 46

Previous/Revision:

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Period: Jan

What Does It Measure?

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash measures the overall health of the manufacturing sector in the Euro Area. It focuses on areas such as production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier delivery times, using key indicators to assess whether conditions are expanding or contracting, typically with a threshold of 50 indicating neutral growth.

Frequency

The index is released monthly, with preliminary estimates made available roughly at the start of the month following the reported period.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to the HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash because it provides timely insights into the manufacturing sector's performance, which is crucial for economic forecasts. Positive readings often lead to bullish sentiment in currencies and equities, while disappointing numbers can have bearish implications across financial markets.

What Is It Derived From?

The PMI is derived from a survey of purchasing managers across various manufacturing industries, typically using a sample of around 300 companies. Data is collected on production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, with responses weighted to create a comprehensive index score reflecting overall economic activity.

Description

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash is a preliminary estimate that compares the current month's data to the previous month, emphasizing short-term changes and trends in manufacturing activity. This focus on month-over-month performance helps identify immediate shifts in business sentiment and demand within the sector.

Additional Notes

This indicator is considered a leading economic measure, offering foresight into manufacturing trends before more comprehensive datasets become available. It is often compared to other economic indicators such as services PMIs for a broader understanding of overall economic health and can reflect conditions in related economies globally.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for EUR, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for EUR, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 16, 2025		49.9
Nov 21, 2025		50.2
Oct 24, 2025		49.5
Sep 23, 2025		50.7
Aug 21, 2025		49.5
Jul 24, 2025		49.7
Jun 23, 2025		49.8
May 22, 2025		49.3
Apr 23, 2025		47.5
Mar 24, 2025		48.2
Feb 21, 2025		47
Jan 24, 2025		45.3
Dec 16, 2024		45.3
Nov 22, 2024	45.2	46	46	-0.8
Oct 24, 2024	45.9	45.3	45	0.6
Sep 23, 2024	44.8	45.6	45.8	-0.8
Aug 22, 2024	45.6	45.8	45.8	-0.2
Jul 24, 2024	45.6	46.1	45.8	-0.5
Jun 21, 2024	45.6	47.9	47.3	-2.3
May 23, 2024	47.4	46.2	45.7	1.2
Apr 23, 2024	45.6	45.6	46.1
Mar 21, 2024	45.7	47	46.5	-1.3
Feb 22, 2024	46.1	47	46.6	-0.9
Jan 24, 2024	46.6	44.8	44.4	1.8
Dec 15, 2023	44.2	44.6	44.2	-0.4
Nov 23, 2023	43.8	43.4	43.1	0.4
Oct 24, 2023	43	43.7	43.4	-0.7
Sep 22, 2023	43.4	44	43.5	-0.6
Aug 23, 2023	43.7	42.6	42.7	1.1
Jul 24, 2023	42.7	43.5	43.4	-0.8
Jun 23, 2023	43.6	44.8	44.8	-1.2
May 23, 2023	44.6	46.2	45.8	-1.6
Apr 21, 2023	45.5	48	47.3	-2.5