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United States USD

United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Low

Source: Institute for Supply Management

Latest Release:

Date:

Surprise:

-2.3

Actual:

47.4

Forecast: 49.7

Previous/Revision:

49.4

Period: Nov

Next Release:

Date:

Forecast: 47.2

Period: Dec

What Does It Measure?

The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index measures the level of new orders placed with manufacturers, specifically capturing future production activity while assessing key areas such as production demand, employment trends, and inventory levels. This indicator is considered a leading measure as it reflects prospective economic activity in the manufacturing sector on a national scale.

Frequency

The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index is released monthly, typically on the first business day of the month, and provides preliminary estimates that may be subject to revision in subsequent reports.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders closely monitor the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index as it directly influences expectations for economic growth; stronger-than-expected results can lead to bullish sentiments in equities and the U.S. dollar, while disappointing figures may have the opposite effect. Its timely release serves as a critical indicator for forecasting broader economic trends and making investment decisions.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a monthly survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which collects responses from a representative sample of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector regarding their new orders. The data is compiled using a diffusion index methodology, where values above 50 indicate expansion and values below indicate contraction.

Description

Preliminary reports of the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index provide early insights into potential changes in manufacturing activity, while final data, released later, reflects more accurate assessments based on comprehensive responses. Market participants often react vigorously to preliminary data due to its immediacy, leading to subsequent refinements in sentiment when final data is published.

Additional Notes

The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index serves as a leading economic indicator, often used alongside other metrics such as industrial production and the overall ISM Manufacturing Index to gauge manufacturing health. Its performance can indicate emerging trends both domestically within the U.S. and in comparison to global manufacturing data, highlighting cyclical patterns in economic activity.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for USD, Bullish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the 'Actual' value differs enough from the forecast or if the 'Previous' value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the 'Actual' deviates from the forecast or there's a notable revision to the 'Previous' value.

Low Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there's an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
Actual deviated from Forecast on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
Actual deviated from Forcast on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Dec 01, 2025	47.4	49.7	49.4	-2.3
Nov 03, 2025	49.4	49.2	48.9	0.2
Oct 01, 2025	48.9	51.5	51.4	-2.6
Sep 02, 2025	51.4	48	47.1	3.4
Aug 01, 2025	47.1	47.2	46.4	-0.1
Jul 01, 2025	46.4	48.3	47.6	-1.9
Jun 02, 2025	47.6	48	47.2	-0.4
May 01, 2025	47.2	44.3	45.2	2.9
Apr 01, 2025	45.2	48.5	48.6	-3.3
Mar 03, 2025	48.6	55.4	55.1	-6.8
Feb 03, 2025	55.1	52.8	52.1	2.3
Jan 03, 2025	52.5	50.5	50.4	2
Dec 02, 2024	50.4	47.6	47.1	2.8
Nov 01, 2024	47.1	47	46.1	0.1
Oct 01, 2024	46.1	46	44.6	0.1
Sep 03, 2024	44.6	47.7	47.4	-3.1
Aug 01, 2024	47.4	49	49.3	-1.6
Jul 01, 2024	49.3	49	45.4	0.3
Jun 03, 2024	45.4	49.4	49.1	-4
May 01, 2024	49.1	51	51.4	-1.9
Apr 01, 2024	51.4	49.5	49.2	1.9
Mar 01, 2024	49.2	52.6	52.5	-3.4
Feb 01, 2024	52.5	47.4	47	5.1
Jan 03, 2024	47.1	48.5	48.3	-1.4
Dec 01, 2023	48.3	45.3	45.5	3
Nov 01, 2023	45.5	49.7	49.2	-4.2
Oct 02, 2023	49.2	47	46.8	2.2
Sep 01, 2023	46.8	48	47.3	-1.2
Aug 01, 2023	47.3	44	45.6	3.3
Jul 03, 2023	45.6	45	42.6	0.6
Jun 01, 2023	42.6	47	45.7	-4.4
May 01, 2023	45.7	44	44.3	1.7
Apr 03, 2023	44.3	49	47	-4.7
Mar 01, 2023	47	42	42.5	5
Feb 01, 2023	42.5	45	45.1	-2.5
Jan 04, 2023	45.2	47	47.2	-1.8
Dec 01, 2022	47.2	49.5	49.2	-2.3
Nov 01, 2022	49.2	47	47.1	2.2
Oct 03, 2022	47.1	51.8	51.3	-4.7
Sep 01, 2022	51.3	47.4	48	3.9
Aug 01, 2022	48	49.5	49.2	-1.5
Jul 01, 2022	49.2	54	55.1	-4.8
Jun 01, 2022	55.1	53	53.5	2.1
May 02, 2022	53.5	53.5	53.8
Apr 01, 2022	53.8	61.5	61.7	-7.7
Mar 01, 2022	61.7	58.3	57.9	3.4
Feb 01, 2022	57.9	59	61	-1.1
Jan 04, 2022	60.4	61	61.5	-0.6
Dec 01, 2021	61.5	59.5	59.8	2
Nov 01, 2021	59.8	65	66.7	-5.2
Oct 01, 2021	66.7	66	66.7	0.7
Sep 01, 2021	66.7	64	64.9	2.7
Aug 02, 2021	64.9	65	66	-0.1
Jul 01, 2021	66	66	67
Jun 01, 2021	67	64	64.3	3
May 03, 2021	64.3	68	68	-3.7
Apr 01, 2021	68	64	64.8	4
Mar 01, 2021	64.8	60	61.1	4.8
Feb 01, 2021	61.1	67	67.5	-5.9
Jan 05, 2021	67.9	56.8	65.1	11.1
Dec 01, 2020	65.1	65	67.9	0.1
Nov 02, 2020	67.9	57	60.2	10.9
Oct 01, 2020	60.2	64	67.6	-3.8
Sep 01, 2020	67.6	57.6	61.5	10
Aug 03, 2020	61.5	55.1	56.4	6.4
Jul 01, 2020	56.4	44.1	31.8	12.3
Jun 01, 2020	31.8	34	27.1	-2.2
May 01, 2020	27.1		42.2
Apr 01, 2020	42.2		49.8
Mar 02, 2020	49.8	51.1	52	-1.3
Feb 03, 2020	52	48.4	47.6	3.6
Jan 03, 2020	46.8	48.9	47.2	-2.1
Dec 02, 2019	47.2	48.5	49.1	-1.3
Nov 01, 2019	49.1	46.9	47.3	2.2
Oct 01, 2019	47.3	50	47.2	-2.7
Sep 03, 2019	47.2	50.6	50.8	-3.4
Aug 01, 2019	50.8	50.4	50	0.4
Jul 01, 2019	50	52.5	52.7	-2.5
Jun 03, 2019	52.7	50.8	51.7	1.9
May 01, 2019	51.7	58.5	57.4	-6.8
Apr 01, 2019	57.4		55.5
Mar 01, 2019	55.5		58.2
Feb 01, 2019	58.2		51.3
Jan 03, 2019	51.1		62.1
Dec 03, 2018	62.1		57.4
Nov 01, 2018	57.4		61.8
Oct 01, 2018	61.8		65.1
Sep 04, 2018	65.1		60.2
Aug 01, 2018	60.2		63.5
Jul 02, 2018	63.5		63.7
Jun 01, 2018	63.7		61.2
May 01, 2018	61.2		61.9
Apr 02, 2018	61.9		64.2
Mar 01, 2018	64.2		65.4
Feb 01, 2018	65.4		67.4
Jan 03, 2018	69.4		64
Dec 01, 2017	64		63.4
Nov 01, 2017	63.4		64.6
Oct 02, 2017	64.6		60.3
Sep 01, 2017	60.3	60	60.4	0.3
Aug 01, 2017	60.4		63.5
Jul 03, 2017	63.5		59.5
Jun 01, 2017	59.5	55.2	57.5	4.3
May 01, 2017	57.5		64.5
Apr 03, 2017	64.5		65.1
Mar 01, 2017	65.1		60.4
Feb 01, 2017	60.4		60.3
Jan 03, 2017	60.2		53
Dec 01, 2016	53		52.1
Nov 01, 2016	52.1		55.1
Oct 03, 2016	55.1		49.1
Sep 01, 2016	49.1		56.9
Aug 01, 2016	56.9		57
Jul 01, 2016	57		55.7
Jun 01, 2016	55.7		55.8
May 02, 2016	55.8		58.3
Apr 01, 2016	58.3		51.5
Mar 01, 2016	51.5		51.5
Feb 01, 2016	51.5		48.8
Jan 04, 2016	49.2		48.9
Dec 01, 2015	48.9		52.9
Nov 02, 2015	52.9		50.1
Oct 01, 2015	50.1		51.7
Sep 01, 2015	51.7		56.5
Aug 03, 2015	56.5		56
Jul 01, 2015	56		55.8
Jun 01, 2015	55.8		53.5
May 01, 2015	53.5		51.8