Yesterday the USDCHF moved sharply lower help by a falling US dollar and comments from SNBs Schlegel. He commented that:

  • Negative interest rates would only return under exceptional circumstances, stressing their harmful effects on savers and pension funds. With the policy rate now at zero following this year’s cuts, Schlegel said officials remain cautious about further easing, even as they monitor U.S. tariffs and sluggish domestic inflation. He defended the pace of earlier reductions as necessary to avoid bigger risks, but conceded it leaves the SNB with limited scope to respond to new shocks. Markets, he noted, still expect rates to remain steady well into 2026.

In the post yesterday, I outlined a key target defined by swing lows going back to July between 0.7910 and 0.79209. The selling in trading today continued from a closing level of 0.79317, but found support buyers within the aforementioned swing area (the low price reached 0.79148).

What now?

The price has extended back up to the swing low from Friday's trade 0.79556. That is a close resistance level now for traders, and if it can hold resistance HERE, and the price move back below a swing area between 0.7938 to 0.7947, the downside can be explored further. If not and the price breaks above the Friday low, the 38.2% of the move down from last week's high at 0.7975 becomes the next target.

Key level here. Will the sellers reenter after the bounce higher today?

Source: Investing Live