• Prior range was 4.25-4.50%
  • Miran voted for 50 bps
  • No other dissents

Ahead of the decision, the market was fully priced for a 25 bps cut with just a 3% implied chance of a 50 bps surprise. For October, the market was priced at 79% for a second 25 bps cut and for year end, 66.9 bps in total easing was priced in. Looking deeper out the curve, a full 125 bps was priced in at the July 2026 meeting.

USD/JPY was trading at 146.29 ahead of the decision, 2-year yields were at 3.543% and 30s were at 4.65%. The S&P 500 was trading down 7 points to 6599, gold was at $3689 and bitcoin was at $116,092.

Source: Investing Live