The USD is modestly lower vs. the 3 major currency pairs to kickstart the trading day for March 17, 2025.

The EURUSD is higher but has some key resistance at 1.09487 at the high of a swing area between 1.0886 to 1.09487. The pair is within that area to start the new trading week as buyers in control.

The USDJPY in March, has moved up and found sellers near the 50% of the move up from the September 2024 low. That comes in at 149.22. The ceiling at that area, has kept the seller in control/play. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart has come into play after the modest correction higher. The level comes in at 148.866. Stay below and the sellers can probe to the downside.

The GBPUSD has moved higher in trading todayadn is moving above the 61.8% of the move down from the 2024 high at 1.2923. That level will be a short term bias defining level for buyers and sellers. Stay above is more bullish. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the high from last week comes in at 1.2988. Move above that level and a swing area between 1.3044 to 1.30583 will be targeted.

Trump plans to speak to Russia's Putin tomorrow.

The US retail sales will be released at the bottom of the hour with the expectation of 0.6% vs -0.9% last month. Ex autus the expectation is 0.3% vs -0.4% last month, and ex auto and gas estimate at 0.4% vs -0.5% last month. On Friday the US Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply with inflation moving higher.

The NY Fed Manufacturing index for March will also be released with the expectation fo -1.5 vs 5.7 last week.

Business inventories will be released at 10 AM with expectations of 0.3% versus -0.2% last month. NAHB housing market index for March will also be released (estimate 42 versus 42 last month).

US stocks are mostly lower in premarket futures trading

  • Dow industrial average -117 points
  • S&P index -6.4 points
  • NASDAQ index -2.3 points

In the US debt market, yields are lower:

  • 2 year 4.014%, unchanged
  • 5-year 4.063%, -1.9 basis points
  • 10 year 4.279%, -2.9 basis points
  • 30 year 4.584%, -3.1 basis points

Later this week, the market will be focused on the Fed rate decision, which will take place on Wednesday. At the meeting the Fed will also release the dot plot and the central tendencies for GDP, Inflation and Unemployment. Will the Fed increase the rate cuts to 3 from 2? Will they be as worrisome on inflation as the Univ. of Michigan?

In addition to the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England will all announce interest rate decisions.

Here is a list of the major releases next week:

Monday, March 17

  • 8:30am USD: Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -0.4%)
  • 8:30am USD: Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -0.9%)

Tuesday, March 18

  • 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.1%)
  • 8:30am CAD: Median CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%)
  • 8:30am CAD: Trimmed CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 2.7%)
  • Tentative JPY: BOJ Policy Rate (Forecast: <0.50%, Previous: <0.50%)
  • Tentative JPY: Monetary Policy Statement
  • Tentative JPY: BOJ Press Conference

Wednesday, March 19

  • 2 pm USD: Federal Funds Rate (Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%)
  • 2 pm USD: FOMC Economic Projections
  • 2 pm USD: FOMC Statement
  • 2:30pm USD: FOMC Press Conference
  • 5:45pm NZD: GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: -1.0%)
  • All Day JPY: Bank Holiday
  • 8:30pm AUD: Employment Change (Forecast: 31.4K, Previous: 44.0K)
  • 8:30pm AUD: Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)

Thursday, March 20

  • 3:00am GBP: Claimant Count Change (Forecast: 7.9K, Previous: 22.0K)
  • 4:30am CHF: SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
  • 4:30am CHF: SNB Policy Rate (Forecast: 0.25%, Previous: 0.50%)
  • 5:00am CHF: SNB Press Conference
  • 8:00am GBP: Monetary Policy Summary
  • 8:00am GBP: MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (Forecast: 0-2-7, Previous: 0-9-0)
  • 8:00am GBP: Official Bank Rate (Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%)
  • 8:30am GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 222K, Previous: 220K)
  • 12:50am CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

Friday, March 21

  • 8:30am CAD: Retail Sale (Forecast -0.4%, previous +2.5%)
  • 8:30am CAD: Core Retail Sales (Forecast 0.0%, previous 2.7%)
Source: Forex Live