Another day. Another North American session full of tariff related headlines.

The day began with President Trump imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect tomorrow. This was in response to an electricity surcharge announced by Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who also threatened to cut off electricity exports.

Later, U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick met with Premier Ford, who appeared to have acted unilaterally. Following discussions, Ford rescinded the electricity surcharge, prompting Trump to withdraw the tariff measures in response.

Additionally, Lutnick and Ford announced plans to meet on Thursday to discuss either a new USMCA agreement or full compliance with the existing deal.

Market Reaction

  • Stocks fell initially on the tariff announcement.
  • Markets rallied after Ford rescinded the surcharge and Trump walked back the tariffs.
  • S&P and Nasdaq turned positive but faced strong selling pressure upon reaching key levels.
  • By the close, major indices erased their gains and ended lower as the initial optimism faded.

What we learned is the market still seems reluctant to call it quits on the sellers. Putting it another way rallies in stocks are being sold.

Other major headlines centered on the Ukraine-Russia war and the high-level meeting in Saudi Arabia involving U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

At the meeting, Ukraine presented a ceasefire proposal, which was agreed upon, effectively putting the pressure on Russia. President Trump stated he plans to call Putin this week to gauge his stance and next steps.

Now, the moment of truth approaches:

  • Will Putin accept the ceasefire and move toward a peace agreement?
  • Or will he resist and derail the diplomatic efforts?

What’s clear is that Trump is pushing for a swift resolution, and Zelenskiy has aligned with the peace efforts. The question remains: Will Putin follow suit?

IN the US debt market today, yields moved higher with:

  • 2 year at 3.949%, up 5.3 basis points
  • 5 year at 4.036%, up 6.3 basis points
  • 10 year at 4.281%, up 6.9 basis points
  • 30 year 4.596%, up 5.9 basis points

In the US stock market, indices closed lower:

  • Dow fell -478.23 points or -1.14%.At session highs the index was still down by -43.44 points.At session lows the index was down -736.34 points.
  • S&P fell -42.49 points or -0.76%. At session highs the index was up 21.74 points. At session lows the index was down -86.15 points
  • Nasdaq fell -32.23 points or -0.18%. At session highs around an hour from the close the index was up 219.07 points. At session lows the index was down -230 points.

In the Forex,

  • EURUSD: The EURUSD continued the stretch t a new high going back to October 11 and into a swing area target between 1.0936 to 1.0954. The price stalled within that area and has will have 1.0900 as close support into the new trading day.
  • USDCAD. The USDCAD traded sharply higher on the increased tariffs, Then gave back all the gains and moved lower between the 100 and 200 hour MAs between 1.4370 to 1.43916. The price is trading back above those level into the close near 144.27.A swing area above between 1.4448 and 1.4471 is resistence into the new day. On the downside, the 100/200 hour MAs area support between 1.4370 to 1.4404.

The GBPUSD trading higher today and is trading above the 61.8% of the move down from the September 2025 high at 1.2922. That is close support into the new day. The next major target is 1.3000 followed by 1.3044 to 1.3058. You business to new working
this year

Source: Forex Live