Bitcoin (BTC) price has plunged to $89,426 today (Tuesday), November 18, 2025, marking its lowest level since April and wiping out all gains made since the start of the year.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has crashed 28% from its record high of $126,275 reached in October, erasing approximately $600 billion in market capitalization. Over the past eight trading sessions, Bitcoin declined on seven occasions, with only one positive day, falling from local peaks at $107,500 on November 11 to intraday lows at $89,253.

In this article, I look for answers why bitcoin price is going down today and present a BTC price prediction indicating a drop to just $74,000.

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Why Bitcoin Price Is Falling? Death Cross Formation Accelerates Decline

The formation of the dreaded death cross pattern has accelerated Bitcoin's descent, confirming a shift in technical momentum. This bearish signal occurs when the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crosses below the 200-day EMA, typically indicating sustained downward pressure.

"Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, influenced by factors such as uncertainty around potential US interest rate cuts, broader negative equity market sentiment, and large holders reducing their positions," said Ashish Singhal, Co-founder of CoinSwitch.

My technical analysis shows that this death cross formation triggered the rapid achievement of the first target zone at $92,000-$94,000, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and aligns with May's lows. The price broke through this critical support faster than anticipated, validating the bearish structure.

BTC Price Critical Technical Levels

The current price action suggests a clear break below the $92,000-$94,000 zone, which now acts as resistance following the principle of pole reversal. Waiting for candlestick confirmation that this zone has become new resistance opens a direct path toward my ultimate the bearish target of $74,000-$76,000, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and April's lows.

Main Reasons Why BTC Is Going Down Today

Record ETF Outflows Fuel Selling Pressure

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced unprecedented outflows, amplifying downward pressure on prices. BlackRock's IBIT recorded a staggering $1.26 billion in net outflows this month alone, with its assets under management dropping from nearly $100 billion earlier in November to approximately $74 billion.

"Last week we saw $1.1 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs following the traditional market sell-offs. Thursday 13th November marked the second-largest daily outflow since the ETFs launched, with a staggering $866 million outflow," explained Danny Scott, CEO of CoinCorner.

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Key Drivers Behind Bitcoin's Crash

• Federal Reserve hawkish stance: Fading odds of a December rate cut, with probability dropping 44 percentage points since October peak
• Death cross technical breakdown: 50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA confirms bearish momentum shift
• Massive institutional outflows: $1.26B from BlackRock IBIT alone, $1.2B total ETF outflows weekly
• Long-term holder profit-taking: Pre-2023 buyers cashing out 200%+ gains after reaching targets
• Leveraged position liquidations: $116.8M in Bitcoin liquidations over 24 hours, $95.3M from long positions
• Traditional market contagion: Tech sector weakness and equity market pullback spilling into crypto

Federal Reserve Policy Pivot Pressures Risk Assets

The Federal Reserve's increasingly hawkish messaging has emerged as a primary catalyst behind Bitcoin's decline. Market expectations for a December 2025 rate cut have deteriorated significantly, with probability dropping from previous highs as Fed officials emphasize inflation concerns and liquidity controls.

The upcoming Federal Reserve minutes scheduled for Wednesday will provide crucial insights into the central bank's December meeting plans, with traders closely monitoring for any signals regarding monetary policy direction. Higher Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar have increased opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, compounding selling pressure across cryptocurrency markets.

Paul Howard, Director at Wincent, offered perspective on the on-chain dynamics: "On-chain data points to sellers who have been accumulating BTC pre 2023. Those buyers are up >200%. So what we can see is when we 'zoom out', those holding long term are the biggest benefactors. As a liquid (risk) asset, cryptocurrencies are a forebearer to general tech risk sentiment so is this decline caused by broader Tech sentiment or just a hallmark of crypto volatility?"

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path to $74K-76K Support Zone

Based on my technical analysis, Bitcoin's break below the critical $92,000-$94,000 support zone has opened a clear path toward the next major support level at $74,000-$76,000. This target zone represents the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and coincides with April 2025 lows, making it a high-probability area for significant buying interest.

"We've now dipped below $93K, making the next market moves critical,” said Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX. “However, based on the cloud structure, a confirmed downtrend would only be established on a sustained break below $80K. History has shown us that while Bitcoin's pullbacks can be sharp, they often present compelling buying opportunities."

Expert Price Predictions Comparison

"From a technical angle, both Bitcoin and ETH are becoming increasingly appealing on this dip. Daily charts show both nearing oversold conditions and approaching key support areas that could serve as a springboard for renewed upside," Kruger explained.

When it comes to Ethereum price, you can read my ETH prediction here, where I explain why the cryptocurrency may fall to as low as $1,370.

At the $74,000-$76,000 zone, I plan to accumulate Bitcoin positions, anticipating a stronger bounce and eventual return to uptrend momentum toward new all-time highs at the transition between 2025 and 2026.

Bitcoin Price Analysis, Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Bitcoin falling today?

Bitcoin is falling due to multiple factors including the death cross technical formation (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA), record $1.26 billion Bitcoin ETF outflows from institutions, fading Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for December, long-term holders taking profits after 200%+ gains, and broader traditional market weakness spilling into cryptocurrency markets.

How low can Bitcoin go?

Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could decline to the $74,000-$76,000 support zone, which represents the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level and aligns with April 2025 lows. A sustained break below $80,000 would confirm a deeper downtrend according to crypto strategist Joel Kruger, while immediate support exists at $88,750-$89,500.

What is Bitcoin price prediction for 2025-2026?

Price predictions vary widely depending on timeframe and scenario. Near-term bearish targets range from $74,000-$88,750, while recovery scenarios forecast $93,000-$132,200 by December 2025. Longer-term bullish projections extend to $150,000-$200,000 for late 2025/early 2026, contingent on reclaiming bullish momentum and favorable macro conditions.

Is Bitcoin in a bear market?

Yes, Bitcoin officially entered bear market territory last week, having declined more than 20% from its October peak of $126,275. The cryptocurrency is now down 28% from that high and has wiped out all 2025 gains, trading at levels last seen in April. However, the typical Bitcoin bear market downturn averages -30.8%, suggesting the current drop remains within historical norms.

Should I buy Bitcoin now?

No. However, this is a personal decision based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals. Risk remain including potential further declines to $74,000-$80,000, continued ETF outflows, and macro headwinds from Federal Reserve policy. Experts suggest current levels may present accumulation opportunities for long-term holders with appropriate risk management.

Will Bitcoin recover?

Yes. While short-term volatility remains elevated, several factors support eventual recovery: Bitcoin fundamentals remain intact with expanding merchant adoption (4 million Square merchants now accepting BTC), institutional players like Strategy continue accumulating, oversold technical conditions often precede rebounds, and historical patterns show pullbacks frequently create buying opportunities. However, recovery timing depends on Federal Reserve policy direction, ETF flow reversal, and broader market stability.