Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 63 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 44 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoE: 54 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 47 bps (51% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 62 bps (89% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 60 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 26 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 29 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)