NZDUSD Technical Analysis – RBNZ’s Orr revises the neutral rate higher

Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar this week has been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to less dovish comments from Fed’s Waller yesterday.

On the NZD side, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected today but Governor Orr sounded less dovish than expected as he said that 3.75% was the high end of the range of neutral rates while previously he said it was 3.50%. That gave the NZD a boost across the board.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD broke above the key 0.57 resistance recently and then got stuck in a consolidation as the market awaits stronger catalysts. The buyers should continue to pile in around these levels to position for a rally into the 0.5850 level next, while the sellers will want to see the price falling back below the 0.57 handle to start targeting new lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for the rally into the 0.5850 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 0.55 handle.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the counter-trendline that was defining the pullback. The buyers will likely pile in here with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop back into the 0.57 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US Flash PMIs.