Markets:

  • Gold up $125 to $4372
  • US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.98%
  • WTI crude oil down 4-cents to $57.50
  • S&P 500 up 1.1%
  • Nasdaq up 1.4% to all-time high
  • AUD leads, CHF lags

The weekend signals about a high-level China-US meeting this week in Malaysia gave the market a strong sense that a deal is coming and led to a strong bid in risk assets. The Nasdaq climbed to a record in a broad, steady bid that snowballed from the start of the day. Adding some fuel might have been a comment from the White House's Hassett that a government shutdown deal was expected this week.

The most-impressive move on the day was gold, which completely recouped Friday's rout and touched a fresh all-time high before retreating in the past few minutes. The buying was modest early in the day but North American traders really stepped on the gas in a sign that Friday's drop was option-related.

The FX market was generally paralyzed. The better risk mood was a tailwind for a number of currencies but the possibility of a US-China deal was positive for the US dollar.

Oil fell to the lowest since May but steadied from as low as $56.35 to bounce by $1.15. Eyes are on the glut that could be forming as OPEC continues to pump more. That's balanced somewhat by ongoing Ukraine attacks on Russian infrastructure.

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