Bitcoin (BTC) price during today’s (Monday’s), November 24, 2025, trading session is down 1% and moving just below $86,000, changing hands at $85,847. However, it's calmed after a very turbulent period that hit on Friday when BTC plunged to just $80,600. its lowest level in seven months and a drop of 33% from October's all-time high of $126,275.

Along the way, a local support zone was created, marked by March lows between $82,000 and $84,000. On the daily chart, a pin bar or hammer candle formed with a very long lower wick and relatively short body, suggesting potential reversal attempt.

Although some analysts predict we've drawn the final bottom of this bear trend, in my view this is only a bull trap and declines will continue toward lower targets. My Bitcoin price prediction: Decline to April lows and this year's minimum in the $74,000 range.

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Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Price Prediction: $80K Dip Before $250K Moonshot

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX co-founder and one of crypto's most influential voices, warns that Bitcoin may fall to $80,000 or even $85,000 before rebounding sharply toward $200,000 or $250,000 by the end of this year. In his latest essay published Monday, Hayes argued that Bitcoin's retreat "from roughly $125,000 to the low $90,000s aligns with a market grappling with tighter financial conditions, despite U.S. equities trading near record highs."

This divergence, he said, suggests a credit event may be forming. Hayes described Bitcoin as a "free-market weathervane" for future fiat liquidity, suggesting it reacts ahead of political decision-making rather than in response to it. "Historically, Bitcoin tends to respond to contracting liquidity earlier than other risk assets," he noted.

Hayes argued that Bitcoin could "absolutely" drop to $80,000 or $85,000 if equities decline 10-20% and Treasury yields climb toward 5%. While the Trump administration continues advocating for looser financial conditions, he said markets are currently following hard liquidity data, not political assurances. "As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions loosely held," Hayes wrote, acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in his forecast.

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Hayes' Liquidity-Driven Bull Case

Despite near-term downside risks, Hayes said a sufficiently deep correction would likely pressure U.S. policymakers to accelerate liquidity injections through the Federal Reserve or other mechanisms. He argued that such a shift could spark a rapid reversal in Bitcoin and drive it toward $200,000 or $250,000 before year-end.

Hayes said he remains skeptical of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, arguing that new all-time highs will only arrive once markets have sold off enough to push U.S. policymakers into faster liquidity expansion. "I am not conceding the four-year cycle is valid," he wrote. Hayes said bullish investors correctly assume U.S. policy ultimately trends toward "money printing" during periods of financial stress.

However, he believes "the market must first retrace gains built since April to align with liquidity fundamentals." Only after such a reset, he argued, will policymakers deliver the scale of easing required to launch Bitcoin to new record highs. Hayes has a strong track record, having accurately predicted Bitcoin's rise past $100,000 in 2024 and forecasting $1 million by 2028.

How Low Can Bitcoin Go? $74K Target Before New ATH

According to my technical analysis, at this point I don't rule out a corrective bounce allowing Bitcoin to return to the $92,000-$94,000 area where the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance zone is located. This would allow strong hands to shake out retail and some buyers, return to declines, and buy back at the mentioned $74,000 level.

If Bitcoin goes that low, I expect aggressive reaccumulation from whales and large institutional players. I anticipate Bitcoin bouncing back above $100,000, returning to an uptrend, and establishing a new ATH in the mid-term, a move above $125,000.

Critical Technical Levels

What would make me abandon my currently adopted scenario? Negation would primarily be a break above the current resistance zone of $92,000-$94,000 and, ultimately, a return to the psychological $100,000 level and the 200-day moving average (200 MA) currently just under $106,000. This would be an official trend reversal from bearish to bullish and would negate the very strong sell signal which is the death cross I wrote about in previous analysis.

Death Cross Confirms Bearish Technical Structure

Bitcoin confirmed a death cross pattern on November 16 when its 50-day simple moving average crossed below its 200-day simple moving average, the first such occurrence since January 2024. This technical milestone historically signals extended price declines and has preceded substantial drawdowns in previous cycles.

The scale of potential losses based on historical patterns is sobering. In January 2022, Bitcoin dropped 64% following a death cross, bottoming at $15,500 amid the FTX crisis. Earlier cycles saw even steeper falls, with March 2018 and September 2014 recording 67% and 71% declines, respectively. Bitcoin's weekly close below the 50-week moving average, a historically significant bearish signal, has prompted some analysts to assign a 60-70% probability that the cycle top is already in.

Market Stress Indicators

• Death cross confirmed: 50-day MA crossed below 200-day MA on November 16, first since January 2024
• Seven-month low: Friday's $80,600 represents lowest level since April 2025
• 33% crash: Down from October all-time high of $126,275
• 50-week MA broken: First time below this key level in current cycle
• Extreme fear: Fear & Greed Index at 12, indicating maximum pessimism
• $800M on-chain losses: Short-term holders unwinding positions at losses
• Put option dominance: $80K put now most popular Deribit bet with $2B open interest
• ETF outflows: $4.34 billion in four weeks amid record trading volumes

Bitcoin Oversold Reversal Forming

Joel Kruger, crypto strategist at LMAX Group, provided an institutional perspective that acknowledges the severity of the selloff while maintaining a constructive medium-term outlook. "Sentiment across the crypto complex remains deeply depressed, and history suggests that when Bitcoin reaches oversold technical conditions—much as it has in recent days—it often marks the early stage of a bullish reversal," Kruger explained.

"While the recent pullback has been extreme, it has not altered our broader outlook," he continued. "As we move toward year-end, we suspect the market will begin the process of carving out a meaningful bottom, one that should ultimately set the stage for a broader recovery across major crypto assets into 2026."

Kruger identified multiple drivers behind the weakness: "The most visible has been the shift toward a more hawkish tone in prior Fed communications, which briefly fueled risk-off flows and reinforced broad U.S. dollar strength. As we have noted before, however, such periods rarely persist; the Fed has repeatedly shown a tendency to lean back toward market expectations, and recent commentary has already taken on a more dovish hue."

He noted that "the market likely became overextended after the strong wave of adoption and regulatory progress throughout 2025, creating a natural 'what's next?' pause that invited profit-taking. This, in turn, triggered a cascade of liquidations as over-levered positions were forced out."

Whether Arthur Hayes' optimistic $250,000 year-end target or my intermediate $74,000 bearish projection materializes first will depend on Federal Reserve policy response, the depth of any equity market correction, and whether institutional buyers step in at current levels or wait for lower prices. As Hayes wisely noted: "As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions loosely held."

Bitcoin Price Analysis, Frequently Asked Questions

What is Bitcoin price prediction for 2025?

Bitcoin price predictions vary dramatically. Arthur Hayes forecasts $200,000-$250,000 by December 31, 2025, after a potential dip to $80,000-$85,000, driven by Fed liquidity injections responding to market stress. According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin will decline to $74,000 (April 2025 lows) where aggressive whale reaccumulation occurs before rallying back above $100,000 to establish new ATH above $125,000 in mid-term. Bearish analysts cite death cross and 50-week MA break suggesting 60-70% chance cycle top is in.

Why is Bitcoin falling today?

Bitcoin fell to $80,600 Friday (seven-month low) and trades at $85,847 Monday due to death cross confirmation (50-day MA below 200-day MA on November 16), first occurrence since January 2024. Other factors include $4.34 billion Bitcoin ETF outflows over four weeks, $800 million on-chain losses from short-term holder capitulation, tighter Fed liquidity conditions, Treasury yield increases, dollar strength, and liquidation cascade from over-leveraged positions. Bitcoin down 33% from October ATH of $126,275.

How low can Bitcoin go?

Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin could drop to $80,000-$85,000 if equities decline 10-20% and Treasury yields reach 5%. According to my technical analysis, Bitcoin will test $74,000 representing April 2025 lows and yearly minimum (161.8% Fibonacci extension). Bearish analysts cite historical death cross outcomes: 64% drop (2022 to $15,500), 67% (2018), 71% (2014). Options market shows $80,000 put as most popular Deribit bet with $2 billion open interest. Key support levels: $82,000-$84,000 (March lows, current test), $80,600 (Friday low), $74,000 (my target).

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000?

Yes. Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin can reach $200,000-$250,000 by end of 2025 if markets sell off enough to force Fed into aggressive liquidity injections. Hayes argues Bitcoin acts as "free-market weathervane" for future fiat liquidity, reacting ahead of policy decisions. He said sufficient correction would pressure policymakers to accelerate easing, sparking rapid reversal. Hayes has strong track record, correctly predicting $100K in 2024. However, this scenario requires market stress triggering policy response and "retracing gains built since April to align with liquidity fundamentals."

Is Bitcoin going to $74,000?

According to my technical analysis, yes, Bitcoin will test $74,000 representing April 2025 lows and this year's minimum. This level aligns with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and represents critical accumulation zone where I expect aggressive whale buying.

Should I buy Bitcoin now?

No, wait until $74K. My analysis shows $74K accumulation zone before new ATH above $125K mid-term, Fed rate cut odds jumped to 70%. Bearish case: Death cross confirmed, 50-week MA broken first time in cycle, analysts assign 60-70% chance cycle top is in, $800M on-chain losses, extreme fear at 12, historical death crosses preceded 64-71% crashes. Current $86,847 may represent bull trap before further decline to $74K.