This New Dogecoin Price Prediction Shows 40% Crash Risk to $0.095 And DOGE Death Cross

Dogecoin (DOGE) price tested $0.1471 on Wednesday, marking its lowest level in five months excluding the October 10 flash crash across the broader crypto market.

However, today (Thursday), 20 November, 2025, brought a nearly 2% rebound to $0.1571, keeping DOGE above the critical support zone that has anchored prices throughout most of 2025.

In this article, I examine why the price of Dogecoin is declining and why current forecasts point to a potential additional drop of about 40 percent, drawing on my ten years of experience as a trader and analyst.

Dogecoin Price Today. Why DOGE Is Falling?

According to my technical analysis, the today’s level of $0.15 coincides with important support zone, that has been drawn continuously from the March lows and has already been tested five times since then, forming the lower boundary of a consolidation range that has persisted through most of the year.

The upper boundary of this consolidation falls between $0.27-$0.29, representing the February peaks that were retested in July and again in September. While DOGE maintains this sideways consolidation range, the main strategy should be swing trading, bouncing up from support and down from resistance.

However, the moving average configuration suggests that bears currently hold the advantage.

Critical Technical Levels for Dogecoin

DOGE Technical Analysis: Death Cross Formation Signals Bearish Momentum

My Dogecoin price prediction starts with a critical warning: we are currently trading below both the 50 and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), a clear signal that the downtrend is now dominant.

According to real-time data, DOGE trades at $0.1571 while the 50-day EMA sits at $0.1973 and the 200-day EMA at $0.2090, meaning the price is 20% below the 50-day and 25% below the 200-day average.

More concerning, at the end of October, these two averages crossed, creating a powerful sell signal known as the death cross. Since this formation, DOGE has corrected more than 25%, validating the bearish pattern.

"DOGE is trading around $0.1530, showing weakening structure with price under pressure and technicals leaning bearish," noted Bill Tech, a technical analyst who shared a short setup on the cryptocurrency.

$DOGE ⚡ DOGE 1H Eyes Key Resistance – Short Setup? ⚡

📉 Plan Short

Entry: $0.1530 – $0.1550

SL: $0.1575

TP: $0.1410 – $0.1350

📊 Analysis Summary

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around $0.1530, showing weakening structure with price under pressure and technicals leaning…

— Bill Tech (@Tech_baro0) November 18, 2025

According to my technical analysis, if we see a clear break of the lower consolidation boundary, the current support zone, and a definitive move below the $0.15 level, then Dogecoin has an open path for a further 40% decline toward levels below $0.10, specifically to $0.095. This represents the lows from the second half of last year, which were tested intensively in July, August, and September 2024.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: Two Scenarios

Based on my comprehensive technical analysis, I'm tracking two distinct scenarios for DOGE in the coming weeks and months.

Bearish Breakdown Scenario (Primary):

If we don't see a clearer bounce from the current lower consolidation band and a return above the 200 EMA coinciding with local resistance around $0.21, the bearish scenario is certainly worth considering. My chart analysis has marked with dashed lines two other local resistance levels that could make it difficult for DOGE to bounce: the first is around $0.17, and the second is the previously mentioned $0.19, representing the August 2025 lows.

My Dogecoin price prediction for this bearish case targets $0.095, which would represent a 40% decline from current levels and align with critical support that held during multiple tests in mid-2024.

Bill Tech's analysis supports this bearish outlook with his short setup: "Plan Short - Entry: $0.1530 – $0.1550, SL: $0.1575, TP: $0.1410 – $0.1350." He noted that "if selling pressure ramps up and DOGE breaks below support at ~$0.151, short-targets come into play at ~$0.1410 and potentially ~$0.1350."

Range Continuation Scenario (Alternative):

The consolidation range between $0.15 and $0.27-$0.29 has held throughout 2025, providing repeated swing trading opportunities.

Challenging Environment for Crypto

Dogecoin is not alone in retesting multi-month lows and flashing strong sell signals. I have noted similar patterns on other charts as well:

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"The latest price movements indicate we are 2 months into a Bear market and until we see greater institutional adoption of risk assets, we can expect volatility of cryptocurrencies to be correlated with market cap,” Paul Howard, Director at Wincent, provided broader context on the challenging market environment.

He added that "NVDA's numbers indicate we may be oversold but longer term adoption and macro headwinds continue to impact short term crypto pricing."

Kyle Rodda, Senior Financial Market Analyst at Capital.com, added that "The recent sell-off in crypto markets seems to be getting to retail traders slightly.”

“Activity mostly declined in crypto assets on our platform in the past week with long positioning dipping slightly. It's a function of fear and probably a bit of profit taking amongst a cohort that likely enjoyed a lot of the mania in the markets over recent months,” he commented.

Moreover, he emphasized that "true to form, traders are still bullish crypto in an absolute sense. Net longs in Bitcoin remain around 88%, while Ripple and Doge are roughly 96%."

Dogecoin Price Analysis, FAQ

What is Dogecoin price prediction for 2025?

My Dogecoin price prediction shows two scenarios: bearish breakdown below $0.15 opens 40% decline path to $0.095 target (July-September 2024 lows), while bullish case requires reclaim of $0.21 (200 EMA) to target $0.20-$0.29 upper consolidation boundary. Changelly forecasts $0.152-$0.161 for November and $0.180-$0.199 for December 2025. Potential DOGE ETF approval could trigger institutional inflows similar to Bitcoin's post-ETF surge.

How low can Dogecoin go?

According to my technical analysis, if DOGE breaks below the critical $0.15 support zone that has held five times since March, it opens a path for 40% decline toward $0.095, representing second half 2024 lows tested intensively in July-September. Bill Tech's short setup targets $0.1410-$0.1350 as intermediate levels. However, whale accumulation of 4.72B DOGE ($770M) and positive exchange inflows suggest potential bottom forming.

Is Dogecoin a good buy now?

DOGE presents a binary setup with mixed signals. Bearish factors include death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA), 25%+ decline since formation, price 25% below 200-day MA, and breakdown risk below $0.15 support. Bullish factors include whale accumulation ($770M over two weeks), exchange inflows turning positive (first time in 6 months, historically precedes bottoms), 96% retail net long positioning, potential DOGE ETF approval within days, and RSI bullish divergence. Risk/reward depends on your timeframe and risk tolerance.

Why is Dogecoin falling?

Dogecoin fell to five-month lows at $0.1471 due to death cross formation (50 EMA crossing below 200 EMA in late October), broader crypto bear market dynamics, lack of institutional demand per Paul Howard analysis, profit-taking after earlier 2025 rallies, and correlation with Bitcoin's weakness. Price dropped from $0.160 to $0.149, breaking critical $0.155 support. However, DOGE rebounded 2% to $0.1571 as the $0.15 lower consolidation boundary continues to hold.

When will Dogecoin recover?

Recovery timing depends on which scenario plays out. My technical analysis requires DOGE to first hold $0.15 support (tested five times since March), then reclaim $0.17 and $0.19 resistance levels, ultimately breaking above $0.21 (200 EMA) to invalidate death cross bearish setup.

Can Dogecoin reach $0.50 in 2025?

For DOGE to reach $0.50 (218% gain from current $0.1571), it would require breaking out of the year-long consolidation range between $0.15-$0.29, invalidating the death cross by reclaiming $0.21+ levels, and sustaining momentum through multiple resistance zones at $0.17, $0.19, and upper boundary near $0.29.