Nasdaq Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upside

Fundamental Overview

The Nasdaq is approaching the all-time highs after a strong rally triggered by the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.

In fact, despite a higher than expected US PPI report, the details that feed into the Core PCE index, which is what the Fed focuses on, were all very soft. That helped to bring the early estimates down to more benign levels. The Core PCE Y/Y is now projected to fall to 2.6% vs. 2.8% in the prior month. That’s good news for the Fed.

The bullish momentum increased eventually as the Trump’s tariffs saga came to an end. In fact, the US President announced his reciprocal tariffs that could go into effect in April but the overall tone of it wasn’t aggressive and sounded a lot like the start of a negotiating process to bring tariffs to a fair level for everyone.

We don’t have much on the agenda this week except the Flash US PMIs on Friday, but the path of least resistance remains to the upside as long as the disinflationary process continues without any growth scare.

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq broke above the key 22111 resistance with the buyers now targeting a new all-time high. The sellers will likely step in around the all-time high level to position for a pullback into the 21000 level, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the price were to pull back into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 21000 level next.

Nasdaq Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 22111 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to target a drop into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US Flash PMIs.